臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延，為了避免疫情的持續擴散，各國紛紛實施旅遊禁令和邊境管制等措施。疫情重創了全球的經濟，旅遊業是影響最為嚴重的產業之一。疫情期間，大眾藉由使用網路新聞來快速獲取資訊，因此，新聞媒體在COVID-19資訊的傳播，發揮至關重要的作用。
本研究旨在藉由Event Registry第三方API蒐集2020年1月到2021年9月，共48011筆旅遊與COVID-19疫情相關的國際新聞，透過結構主題模型及文字探勘技術，分析新聞內文中所發現主題的弱訊號，並建構訊號偵測模型，使企業未來在面臨突發事件前，能藉由該系統盡早作出預防措施，並擬定風險管理策略。本研究結果識別出整體和不同時期的議題探討趨勢，除了新型態旅遊主題，同時也識別到其他領域，例如:旅遊保險、音樂旅遊和體育旅遊的影響。而旅遊模式因應疫情的變動，也轉為較為安全且接觸較少人群的公路旅遊與鄉村旅遊。儘管 COVID-19 大流行損害了旅遊業的發展，但它也為旅遊業者提供了未來旅遊模式的改革和創新、國際合作和區域交流的機會。旅遊泡泡、虛擬旅遊等新型態的旅行方式、政府政策與補助都是未來旅遊業復甦的方向。

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly around the world since 2020. In order to prevent the continued spread of the COVID-19, many countries have implemented travel restrictions and border controls. COVID-19 is affecting the global economy, tourism is one of the most affected industries. During the pandemic, people using online news to obtain information. Therefore, the news media played an important role in the information dissemination.
The study aims to identify and analyze the weak signals in the tourism industry from news using structural topic modeling and text mining techniques. For this purpose, 48,011 news related to tourism from January 2020 to September 2021 were collected by Event Registry, the third-party API. Through analyzing the identified weak signals, government and tourism enterprises can prevent or manage the risks resulted from the pandemic as early as possible before facing emergent events in the future. This study identifies several trends and signals of tourism industry during pandemic, including new type tourism development and the impacts on tourism-related areas, shch as travel insurance, music tourism, and sport tourism. Also, in order to response to the pandemic, the road trip and rural tourism which has less contact with people are preferred. Besides, the study finds that although the COVID-19 pandemic has hurt tourism development, it has also provided opportunities for future tourism reform and innovation, international cooperation, and regional communication. New types of travel such as travel bubbles and virtual tourism are the directions of tourism recovery in the near future.

謝　詞 I
國立臺北大學110學年度第2學期碩士學位論文提要 II
ABSTRACT III
目　錄 IV
圖　次 VI
表　次 IX
第一章 緒論 1
第一節　研究背景 1
第二節　研究動機 2
第三節　研究目的 3
第四節　研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節　新冠肺炎對旅遊業的影響 5
第二節　文字探勘 7
第三節　弱訊號 13
第三章 研究方法 22
第一節　研究架構 22
第二節　階段一：資料收集與分割 24
第三節　階段二：STM主題分析 30
第四節　階段三：強弱訊號識別 33
第五節　階段四：跨期主題連結分析 34
第六節　階段五：訊號演變分析 37
第四章 研究結果 39
第一節　資料收集與分割 39
第二節　結構主題模型分析結果 40
第三節　強弱訊號識別與主題連結 53
第四節　訊號動態演變 54
第五節　討論與應用 78
第五章 結論與建議 81
第一節　研究貢獻與結論 81
第二節　管理實務意涵 82
第三節　研究限制與挑戰 83
第四節　後續研究與建議 84
參考文獻 87
附錄一　各期主題數判斷圖 93
附錄二　各期訊號圖 100
附錄三　各期字詞 107
著作權聲明 121

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