臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

自從工業革命以來，人類活動使得大氣中的溫室氣體含量增加。電動車能有效降低碳排放，減緩全球暖化。影響電動車製造成本的重要因素為原物料成本，電動車核心組件為電池，鎳金屬是車用電池主要原料之一，故本研究鎳金屬價格是否對生產車用電池公司股價有明顯的影響，可供投資人多一項參考依據。本研究透過鎳價格之變動是否影響車用電池產業股價分析，加入EPS每股稅後盈餘（元）、DR負債總額比和CFR現金流量比（季累計）一同進行分析。採用González et al. (2004, 2005)提出的縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型，以EPS每股稅後盈餘（元）、DR負債總額比和CFR現金流量比（季累計）作為解釋變數，來實證鎳金屬價格不同時，對車用電池產業股價影響之非線性實證分析。
鎳金屬價格與每股稅後盈餘不管在小於或大於14860美元/噸門檻值時，對於股價有正向顯著影響，與過去文獻驗證相符。現金流量比只有在小於14860美元/噸門檻值時，對於股價有正向影響。僅負債總額比對於股價完全無影響，與過去文獻研究結果不相符。換句話說，鎳金屬價格屬於原物料成本，對於生產車用電池公司股價來說是有明顯影響；每股稅後盈餘可看出該公司實質營運績效，直接影響了該公司股價。現金流量比對於生產車用電池公司股價影響，只在小於14860美元/噸門檻值時有影響，綜合上下價格區間影響並不大。唯有負債總額比對於生產車用電池公司股價完全無影響。

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, causing extreme climates that affect human survival. In order to improve the current situation, the United Nations proposes carbon trading and trading of carbon rights. Electric vehicles can effectively reduce carbon emissions and slow down global warming. To popularize electric vehicles, manufacturing costs need to be lowered so that the selling price can be lowered so that more people can buy them. One of the important factors affecting manufacturing costs is the cost of raw materials. The core component of electric vehicles is batteries, and nickel metal is one of the main raw materials for automotive batteries. Therefore, this study examines whether the price of nickel metal has a significant impact on the stock prices of companies that produce automotive batteries. , which can provide investors with one more reference. This study analyzes whether changes in nickel prices affect the stock price of the automotive battery industry, adding EPS after-tax earnings per share (yuan), DR to total debt ratio, and CFR cash flow ratio (quarterly cumulative) for analysis. Using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models proposed by González et al. (2004, 2005), the after-tax earnings per share of EPS (yuan), the total debt ratio of DR and the cash flow ratio of CFR (quarterly cumulative) are used as explanatory variables to empirically demonstrate Non-linear empirical analysis of the impact of different nickel metal prices on the stock price of the automotive battery industry.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究之重要性、研究目的 3
第二章 文獻探討 6
股價影響之因素 6
第一節 倫敦金屬交易所（LME）鎳金屬價格的適用性 6
第二節 原物料文獻 7
第三節 基本面相關文獻 9
第三章 研究方法 15
第一節 縱橫平滑移轉模型（Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models） 16
第二節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸設定 21
第四章 實證結果與分析 26
第一節 資料來源與分析 26
第二節 敘述統計 26
第三節 變數定義 27
第四節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型檢定之實證結果分析 29
第五章 結論與建議 36
參考文獻 39

圖　次
圖 3-1-1 M=1之轉換模型 19
圖 3-1 2 M=2之轉換模型 20
表　次
表4-2-1敘述性統計表 27
表4-4-1鎳價格對車用電池產業公司之影響的同質性檢定 30
表4-4-2轉換模型之選擇 31
表4-4-3 縱橫平滑移轉模型參數 34
表4-4-4 縱橫平滑移轉模型參數估計（新T值） 35

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