2019 年底全球新冠肺炎（COVID-19) 疫情爆發，嚴重影響營造工程之進度和成本。雖許多學者投注精力對疫情對營造業的影響進行研究，但迄今尚未有量化COVID-19對工程所帶來的衝擊影響。
因此本研究透過文獻回顧、專家訪談與問卷調查，澄清高風險環境之風險，彙整出重要風險因素清單，分析與探討近三年(2019-2022) COVID-19對工程所帶來的影響，其風險發生機率與對時程和成本影響百分比，並建立風險量化評估模式，量化所造成的影響與曝險值，透過案例實證，供各單位提前預判風險妥為因應，減輕對專案績效的影響。
最終歸納出6大類别21個工程風險因素，與過往相比發現，大流行期間，需優先注意「勞動力」、「市場資源」與「廠商經濟狀況」等相關因素，並預測出對於疫情爆發的期間，案例專案所需具備最少時程曝險天數為原工期的5%，最可能為8%，最多為10%；所需具備的最少成本曝險金額為原成本的4%，最可能為8%，最多為11 %，為後續研究COVID-19或未來任何潛在大流行影響的衝擊奠定風險量化基礎。

At the end of 2019, the global COVID-19 outbreak seriously affected the progress and cost of construction projects. Although many scholars have devoted their energy to research on the impact of the epidemic on the construction industry, so far there has been no quantification of the impact of COVID-19 on engineering.
Therefore, this study clarifies the risks of high-risk environments through literature review, expert interviews and questionnaire surveys, compiles a list of important risk factors, and analyzes and discusses the impact of COVID-19 on engineering in the past three years (2019-2022). The probability of risk occurrence and the percentage of impact on schedule and cost, and establish a quantitative risk assessment model to quantify the impact and exposure value, provide each unit with case evidence, predict risks in advance and respond appropriately, and reduce the impact on project performance.
Finally, 21 engineering risk factors in 6 categories were summarized. Compared with the past, it was found that during the pandemic, relevant factors such as "labour", "market resources" and "manufacturer economic conditions" should be given priority, and the impact on the outbreak of the epidemic should be predicted. During the period, the minimum time schedule exposure days required for a case project is 5%, most likely 8%, and maximum 10% of the original construction period; the minimum required cost exposure amount is 4% of the original cost, most likely 8%, up to 11%, to provide a risk quantification basis for subsequent research on the impact of COVID-19 or any potential future pandemic impact. 

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌 謝 III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
壹、緒論 1
一、研究背景及動機1
二、研究目的2
三、研究範圍及限制2
四、研究流程及架構2
貳、文獻探討5
一、新冠疫情對營建業的影響5
(一)營造業缺工現象6
(二)供應鏈短缺、物價上漲現象7
(三)研究文獻和知識鴻溝10
二、營建工程施工風險分類與分析11
三、風險管理14
(一)定性分析14
(二)半定量分析16
(三)定量分析18
四、蒙地卡羅模擬法20
五、小結 21
參 研究方法及架構22
一、工程施工風險因素22
二、問卷敘述性統計、信效度及差異性分析24
(一)敘述性統計24
(二)信度分析25
(三)效度分析25
(四)差異性分析26
三、專案風險管理架構26
(一)風險辨識28
(二)風險定性分析28
(三)風險半定量與定量分析30
(四)風險因應對策37
四、蒙地卡羅模擬與分析38
肆 模擬結果與分析40
一、專家訪談分析40
二、問卷架構與風險因素分析43
(一)信度分析45
(二)敘述性統計45
(三)單因子變異數分析(Analysis of Variance, ANOVA) 47
三、風險因素分析排名49
四、實證案例概述55
五、案例蒙地卡羅模擬與分析75
伍 結論與建議90
一、結論 90
二、建議 90
參考文獻 92
附錄一 96
附錄二 97

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