臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究利用世界銀行提供的1990年至2020年三十年間的數據，研究了越南和印度尼西亞這兩個國家的經濟增長、投資和就業之間的關係。使用ARDL模型，結果顯示這兩個國家的研究模型中自變量和就業之間存在長期和短期的關係。從長期來看，經濟增長率對兩國的就業增長有正向影響。相反，國內生產總值、外國直接投資和政府消費支出（公共支出）的影響可以忽略不計。然而，在短期內，經濟增長率對就業有不利的影響，而國內生產總值和外國直接投資對就業有有利的影響，有一兩年的滯後期。

This study examines the relationship between economic growth, investment, and employment in two countries, Vietnam and Indonesia, using data from the World Bank for the thirty-one-year period from 1990 to 2020. Using the ARDL model, the results show a long-run and short-run relationship between the independent variable and employment in the research models of both countries. In the long run, the economic growth rate positively affects employment growth in both countries. In contrast, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, and government consumption expenditure (public expenditure) have negligible effects. However, in the short term, the economic growth rate has a detrimental impact on employment, while gross domestic product and foreign direct investment have a favorable impact on employment with a one-two-year lag.

摘要 ...i
Abstract ...ii
Acknowledgment ...iii
Table of Content ...iv
List of Tables ...vi
List of Figures ...vii
Abbreviations ...viii
Chapter 1 Introduction ...1
1.1 Motivation ...1
1.2 Target and question ...2
1.3 Objects and scope of research ...2
Chapter 2 Literature Review ...3
2.1 The relationship between economic growth, investment, and employment ...3
2.2 The method of lag regression ...8
Chapter 3 Methodology and Data ...10
3.1 The model and method of research ...10
3.2 Data ...13
3.2.1 Data overview ...13
3.2.2 Testing for stationary data series ...17
Chapter 4 Empirical Results ...20
4.1 Regression analysis ...20
4.1.1 Estimate the number of lag ...20
4.1.2 The results of the bound test ...21
4.1.3 Estimate the short-run coefficient ...22
4.1.4 Estimate the long-run coefficient of the ARDL model ...23
4.1.5 Defect diagnostic testing of the ARDL model ...24
4.2 Forecast the change in employment by the ARIMA model ...26
4.2.1 The values of AR, MA ...26
4.2.2 Testing the effectiveness of the ARIMA model ...27
4.2.3 Forecasting the number of employed labor to 2030 ...27
Chapter 5 Conclusion ...28
References ...30
Extended Abstract ...35

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