臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文主要在探討新造船舶影響因子與未來船舶訂單需求之關係，依據造船與航運市場之供需法則及船廠與船東兩者相互考量等因素，全球貿易量、船隊運力、新船訂單、手持訂單、船舶完工量、拆船市場、二手船舶市場，以及運費市場等8項為主要影響因子。本研究回顧相關文獻，並根據造船與航運市場供需理論，探討影響因子對2018-2019年間貨櫃船與散裝船市場供給與需求年增率變化之影響。
結果發現：貨櫃船在2019年全球貿易量需求僅為船隊運力供給之37.5％，新船訂單衰減幅度為交船量衰減幅度達2倍。此外，散裝船2019年全球貿易量需求為船隊運力供給之47.5％，而新船訂單與交船量年增率差異更達2.6倍，故整體造船及航運市場呈現供過於求狀態，且散裝船比貨櫃船景氣更加嚴峻。另一方面，二手船舶市場之衰退及拆船市場之成長等因素亦是導致造船業仍處於產能過剩階段。因此，未來新船訂單需求仍需一段時間後，方可達止跌回穩趨勢或呈現正成長。本研究結果可供國內造船廠對未來接單策略之參考。

The purpose of this study is to find out the relationship between the impact factors of new shipbuilding and future requirement of ship orders. The analysis of this study is based on the supply and demand rules of shipbuilding, shipping market and the mutual consideration between shipyard and shipowner. Global trade, fleet capacity, newbuilding order, orderbook, delivery volume of new ship, demolition market, secondhand market, and freight market are considered as main impact factors. Base on reviewing relevant literature of shipbuilding and shipping market, this research analyses the annual rate change for each market of container ships and bulk carriers from 2018 to 2019.
The results show that demand of global trade volume for container ships is only 37.5％ of fleet capacity supply, and the decline ratio of newbuilding orders was about twice of delivery volume. Furthermore, demand of global trade volume for bulk carriers is only 47.5％ of the fleet capacity supply. and the difference of decline ratio between newbuilding orders and delivery volume reach to 2.6 times. In the other hand, decline of the second-hand ship market and the growth of the ship recycling market which reflected the market in the stage of inefficiency demand and oversupply. The prosperity of bulker is more severe than container. In the future, newbuilding order of container and bulker will reach a stable trend or a positive growth after period of time. Finally, the findings of this study will provide a valuable reference to domestic shipyard while making order strategies.

第壹章 緒論 1
(一) 研究背景及動機 1
(二) 研究目的 3
(三) 研究範圍與限制 3
(四) 研究項目與內容 4
(五) 研究方法與流程 5
第二章 文獻探討 7
(一) 造船產業經濟概述與文獻 7
(二) 造船產業經濟相關文獻 8
(三) 航運產業經濟概述 10
(四) 航運產業相關文獻 13
第參章 造船市場分析 16
(一) 全球造船市場及主要新船價格決定因素 16
(二) 全球造船產業特色-供應方 22
(三) 船舶優惠融資政策 33
(四) 其他因素 39
(五) 綜合歸納 43
第肆章 航運市場分析 45
(一) 貨櫃航運市場現況 45
(二) 散裝航運市場 58
(三) 綜合評估 67
第伍章 結論 75
第陸章 未來展望 78
(一) 隨時關注市場貿易發展 78
(二) 產品創新及提高簽約率 78
(三) 政府政策支持 79
參考文獻 80

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