我國電力碳排量超過全國總量的56%，電力結構主要又以化石燃料為主的火力發電型式，因此，火力發電廠減碳是當務之急，但減碳的同時成本也隨之增加，碳足跡與電價之間的關係將影響國民經濟與國家競爭力。
本研究以某火力發電廠為例，從溫室氣體盤查出發，分析影響碳排主要特徵因子，針對因子如發電量、效能、負載調度、環保因素等等加以分析計算碳排量，並以統計方法預測未來的碳排量基線。
研究結果顯示火力發電廠提高燃氣占比雖然可以快減碳，但增加發電成本及燃料單一風險，汰舊換新高效能機組及使用生質能源搭配低碳燃料混燒及碳捕捉技術才能達到淨零目標。

My country's electricity carbon emissions exceed 56% of the country's total, and the Electricity structure is mainly based on fossil fuel-based thermal power generation. Therefore, carbon reduction in thermal power plants is a top priority, but the cost of carbon reduction also increases, and the carbon footprint The relationship between electricity and electricity prices will affect the national economy and national competitiveness.
This study takes a thermal power plant as an example, starting from the greenhouse gas inventory, analyzes the main characteristic factors affecting carbon emissions, analyzes and calculates carbon emissions for factors such as electricity generation, efficiency, load scheduling, environmental protection factors, etc. and use statistical methods to predict the future carbon emission baseline.
The research results show that although increasing the proportion of gas in thermal power plants can quickly reduce carbon emissions, it also increases the cost of electricity generation and the risk of a single fuel. Only by replacing old and new high-efficiency units and using biomass energy with low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture technology can net zero goals.

摘 要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌 謝 iii
目 錄 iv
表 目 錄 vi
圖 目 錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究目的與動機 3
1.3 論文組織與架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 Global Warming of 1.5℃ 6
2.2 臺灣2050淨零排放路徑及策略說明 8
2.3 台灣電力公司2021永續報告書 — 友善環境行動者 10
第三章 研究方法及架構 12
3.1 研究架構 12
3.2 研究方法 12
第四章 研究步驟 15
4.1 步驟一、溫室氣體盤查 15
4.1.1 概述 15
4.1.2 盤查邊界設定 16
4.1.3 排放源鑑別 17
4.1.4 基準年設定 19
4.1.5 量化方法 19
4.1.6 係數選用 20
4.1.7 計算範例 22
4.1.8 排放強度 23
4.2 步驟二、溫室氣體減量 25
4.2.1 溫室氣體減量概述 25
4.2.2 計劃性減排 29
4.2.3 非計劃性減排 39
4.3 步驟三、溫室氣體排放預測 46
4.3.1 實驗流程設計 46
4.3.2 機組除役時程 47
4.3.3 燃煤機組 48
4.3.4 天然氣機組 48
4.3.5 新建機組 48
4.3.6 生質能機組 50
4.3.7 預測結果討論 51
第五章 結論 57
5.1 研究結果 57
5.2 未來研究方向 59
參 考 文 獻 61

[1]Wuebbles, D. J., & Jain, A. K., (2001), Concerns about climate change and the role of fossil fuel use., Fuel processing technology, 71(1-3), 99-119.
[2]Ritchie, H., Roser, M., & Rosado, P., (2020), CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions., Our world in data.
[3]Ehhalt,D., et al.,( 2001) “Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases,” .
[4]Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (2021), Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2.
[5]Lindsey, R.; Dahlman, L., (2020), Climate change: Global temperature. Climate. gov, 16.
[6]Ebi, Kristie L., et al., (2021), Extreme weather and climate change: population health and health system implications. ,Annual review of public health, 42(1), 293-315.
[7]D'Amato, G., & Akdis, C., (2020), Global warming, climate change, air pollution and allergies., Authorea Preprints.
[8]聯合國氣候變化綱要公約。
[9]氣候變遷因應法。
[10]環署氣籌字第1129100952號 公告：事業應盤查登錄及查驗溫室氣體排放量之排放源。
[11]溫室氣體排放量盤查登錄管理辦法。
[12]H. Ohta, (2021), “Japan’s Policy on Net Carbon Neutrality by 2050,” East Asian Policy., 13(01), 19-32.
[13]J. Deutch, (2020), “Is net zero carbon 2050 possible?,” Joule., 4(11), 2237-2240.
[14]H. Oh I. , Hong, and I. Oh,( 2021), “South Korea’s 2050 carbon neutrality policy.,” East Asian Policy, 13(01), 33-46.
[15]P. Plötz et al, (2021), “Net-Zero-Carbon Transport in Europe until 2050—Targets, Technologies and Policies for a Long-Term EU Strategy.,” Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI. Available online: https://www. isi. fraunhofer. de/en. html (accessed on 25 July 2021).
[16]國家發展委員會，(2022)，臺灣2050淨零排放路徑及策略總說明 [PDF file]，NDC，Retrieved from https://www.ndc.gov.tw/。
[17]Munzur, A., Koch, K., & Winter, J., (2021), Geopolitical Implications of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
[18]Eicke, Laima, et al., (2021), Pulling up the carbon ladder? Decarbonization, dependence, and third-country risks from the European carbon border adjustment mechanism., Energy Research & Social Science, 80, 102240.
[19]Weber, C. L., & Peters, G. P., (2009), Climate change policy and international trade: Policy considerations in the US., Energy Policy, 37(2), 432-440.
[20]Larch, M., & Wanner, J., (2017), Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects., Journal of International Economics, 109, 195-213.
[21]KARL, Thomas R., et al., (2009), Global climate change impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the US Global Change Research Program., Cambridge University Press.
[22]ALLEN, M., et al. , (2018), Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 C., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
[23]SUTTON, Rowan T.; DONG, Buwen; GREGORY, Jonathan M. , (2007), Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations., Geophysical research letters, 34(2).
[24]WANG, You-Ren, et al. , (2022), Evaluating global and regional land warming trends in the past decades with both MODIS and ERA5-Land land surface temperature data., Remote Sensing of Environment, 280, 113181.
[25]汪中和，(2015)，氣候暖化與台灣的水資源，鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊59(2)，11-15。
[26]經濟部水利署，(2020)，109~110年百年大旱抗旱紀實，初版，台中市。
[27]卓盈旻，盧孟明，(2013)，臺灣地區近百年極端乾期變化分析，大氣科學， 41(2)， 171-187。
[28]Singh, S., et al., (2006), A review of wind – resource – assessment technology., Journal of Energy Engineering, ASCE, 132, 8-14.
[29]Chrobak, P., et al., (2016), Effect of cloudiness on the production of electricity by photovoltaic panels, MATEC Web of Conferences, EDP Sciences, vol.76, No.02010, pp.1-4.
[30]Bonkaney, A., et al., (2017), Impacts of cloud cover and dust on the performance of photovoltaic module in Niamey, Journal of Renewable Energy, vol.2017, pp.1-8.
[31]台灣電力股份有限公司，(2021)，2021永續報告書：友善環境行動者 [PDF file]， TPC，Retrieved from https://csr.taipower.com.tw/。
[32]蘇立基，(2020)，台電社會責任之研究—以減碳為例，中國文化大學，PhD Thesis。
[33]行政院環境保護署，(2016)，溫室氣體盤查登錄審查作業指引20160614 [PDF file]，EPA，Retrieved from https://ghgregistry.epa.gov.tw。
[34]鄭睿合，鄭翔勻， (2019)， 依循我國能源轉型規劃之燃煤發電量變化與碳排放量影響，經濟前瞻,，(181), 51-54.C。
[35]PLANT, Taichung Thermal Power，(2010)，影響台電公司火力電廠燃煤汽力機組熱效率因素之研究：以台中電廠為例，台電工程月刊，737，1-11。
[36]台灣電力股份有限公司，(2019)，台電環境白皮書 [PDF file]，台電環境白皮書及環境政策-措施公告-業務公告-台灣電力股份有限公司，TPC， Retrieved from https://www.taipower.com.tw/tc/page.aspx?mid=1456。
[37]Cherrington, R., et al., (2013), The feed-in tariff in the UK: A case study focus on domestic photovoltaic systems., Renewable Energy, 50, 421-426.
[38]Timilsina, G. R., et al., (2012), Solar energy: Markets, economics and policies., Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 16(1), 449-465.
[39]Clark, R., Zucker, N., & Urpelainen, J., (2020), The future of coal-fired power generation in Southeast Asia., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 121, 109650.
[40]Henning, H. M., & Palzer, A., (2015), What will the energy transformation cost? Pathways for transforming the German energy system by 2050., Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Freiburg.
[41]台灣電力股份有限公司(興達發電廠)，(2014)，興達發電廠一號機鍋爐及汽機、控制系統與效能提升專案計畫書 [PDF file]，第5版， https://carbonoffset.moenv.gov.tw/ApplicationRegistrationView/CaseQuery。
[42]Arent, D. J., et al., (2011), The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming, Energy Economics, 33(4), 584-593.
[43]Ellabban, O., Abu-Rub, H., & Blaabjerg, F., (2014), Renewable energy resources: Current status, future prospects and their enabling technology., Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 39, 748-764.
[44]羅時芳，吳周燕，(2017)，臺灣生質燃料產業趨勢分析，經濟前瞻，174，112-117。
[45]Zhai, H., Ou, Y., & Rubin, E. S., (2015), Opportunities for decarbonizing existing US coal-fired power plants via CO2 capture, utilization and storage., Environmental science & technology, 49(13), 7571-7579.
[46]Nazim Muradov, (2001), Hydrogen via methane decomposition: an application for decarbonization of fossil fuels, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Volume 26, Issue 11, Pages 1165-1175, ISSN 0360-3199.
[47]HERRAIZ, Laura, et al. , (2020), Sequential combustion in steam methane reformers for hydrogen and power production with CCUS in decarbonized industrial clusters., Frontiers in Energy Research, 8, 180.
[48]Figueroa, J. D., et al., (2008), Advances in CO2 capture technology—The U.S. Department of Energy's Carbon Sequestration Program, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Volume 2(1), 9-20.
[49]Rubin, E. S., et al., (2012), The outlook for improved carbon capture technology., Progress in energy and combustion science, 38(5), 630-671.
[50]Singh, U., Rao, A. B., & Chandel, M. K., (2017), Economic implications of CO2 capture from the existing as well as proposed coal-fired power plants in india under various policy scenarios., Energy Procedia, 114, 7638-7650.
[51]Parvareh, F. et al., (2014), Integration of solar energy in coal-fired power plants retrofitted with carbon capture: a review., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 38, 1029-1044.
[52]Mann, M. K., & Spath, P. L., (1999, August), The Net CO2 emissions and energy balances of biomass and coal-fired power systems., In Proceedings of the fourth biomass conference of the Americas, Oakland, California, 379-85.
[53]Cherubini, F., et al., (2011), CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming., Gcb Bioenergy, 3(5), 413-426.