臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

都市發展和人類活動威脅著生態系統結構與生態運作過程，在全球環境急遽變化之下，土地使用變遷使生態系統受到嚴重之影響，其結構與功能亦隨之產生巨大變化。都市開發造成的土地利用變化引發各類生態系統與空間分佈之改變，且會影響自然循環過程以及出現環境污染等問題，故本研究藉由高雄新市鎮2006、2015、2019與2021年之土地使用分佈資料，瞭解土地使用與地表覆蓋的改變，其中又以2021年的圖資作為預計開發後之土地利用，假設橋頭科學園區之範圍為建設用地。研究中透過SLEUTH模型預測高雄新市鎮第二期發展區（配合科學園區）之計畫年期2036年之都市蔓延情形與空間分佈之演變過程，並利用InVEST模型檢視土地利用變遷對生態系統服務功能之影響，檢視生態系統服務功能之變化情形，最終量化17項生態系統服務價值。研究結果顯示，在InVEST模型「碳儲存」調節服務方面，主要受到森林用地和農業用地的變化而有所影響，其中森林用地能夠提供較高的碳儲存量，在橋頭科學園區興建完成後會使土地利用大面積的轉變成建設用地，導致其碳儲存量急劇下降，約為基礎年之-11.89%；在「棲地品質」方面為根據棲地受威脅之影響程度來評估其棲地品質的狀況，至橋科開發後因受到建設用地等威脅源增加，造成棲地的破碎與不完整；「沉積物傳輸」方面主要受到地形坡度、土地利用類型以及降雨侵蝕指數而有所影響，且森林用地具有較高之土壤保持能力，因此在土地管理上對於它的保護顯得更加重要。生態系統服務價值則受各時期之各類土地面積及單位面積當量係數、消費者物價指數及購買力平價而有所影響。在各項土地利用類別中，水體提供了最高的生態系統服務價值；水源調節則在各項生態系統服務中佔有最高之價值。本研究透過SLEUTH模型模擬未來都市的蔓延情形，預測2036年之總都市用地面積約為714公頃。本模擬能讓規劃者及決策者在規劃階段，預先瞭解未來之都市發展，模擬之成果亦可作為未來土地發展規劃之考量依據，緩解都市發展的建設需求和環境保護之間的衝突。

Urban development and human activities pose a threat to ecosystems, causing significant structural and functional changes. This study utilizes land use data from Kaohsiung New Town in 2006, 2015, 2019, and 2021 to understand regional land use and cover changes. The 2021 land use map is used to represent the baseline for future urban development, considering the current establishment of the Kaohsiung Science Park. This study adopts SLEUTH model to predict the urban sprawl and spatial distribution of the second phase development area of Kaohsiung New Town (in cinjunctio with the science park) in 2036. InVEST model is then applied to examine the impact of land use changes on ecosystem services, to address possible conflicts between urban development and environmental protection. The changes on ecosystem services are then quantified as monetary values of 17 ecosystem services.
The results from InVEST model show that changes in forest and agricultural land significantly impact the "carbon storage" regulating service, generating a remarkable reduction at approximately 11.89%. Forest land, with its high carbon storage capacity, experiences a sharp decline in storage due to the conversion to construction land for the Kaohsiung Science Park. The "habitat quality" is influenced by increased threats from construction land, resulting in fragmented and incomplete habitats. The "sediment delivery ratio" is primarily influenced by terrain slope, land use type, and rainfall erosion. Forest land's higher soil retention capacity underscores its importance in land management. The value of ecosystem services is influenced by various factors such as land area and unit area coefficients, consumer price index (CPI), and purchasing power parity (PPP) during different periods. Among various land use categories, water land provide the highest value of ecosystem services, while water regulation holds the highest value among all ecosystem services. According to the results from the SLEUTH model in predicting urban sprawl, the projected total urban land area in 2036 is approximately 714 hectares. The results from this study is expected to provide valuable insights for planners and decision-makers during the planning phase and serves as a basis for future land development considerations.

摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
誌謝 IV
目錄 V
表目錄 VIII
圖目錄 X
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究範圍 2
1.3 研究目的與架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1 土地利用變遷與生態系統服務之關係 4
2.1.1 土地利用變遷對生態系統服務之影響 5
2.1.2 土地利用型態對生態系統服務之影響 6
2.2 土地使用規劃模式之進程 6
2.2.1 規劃支援系統之類型 7
2.2.2 土地規劃模式之比較 8
2.2.3 SLEUTH城市成長模型 10
2.2.4 都市發展之評估與研究 11
2.3 生態系統服務 14
2.3.1 生態系統服務概念與進程 14
2.3.2 生態系統服務功能 16
2.3.3 生態系統服務評估架構 19
2.3.4 生態系統服務的價值化評估 20
2.3.5 生態系統服務評估研究 21
2.3.6 InVEST生態系統服務評估模型(Integrate Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs tool) 24
第三章 實驗方法與設計 32
3.1 研究設計 32
3.2 研究方法 34
3.2.1 地理資訊系統(Geographic Information System，GIS) 34
3.2.2 SLEUTH城市成長模型 35
3.2.3 InVEST生態系統服務評估模型(Integrate Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs tool) 41
3.2.4 生態系統服務價值 54
3.2.5 研究基礎資料 61
第四章 結果與討論 83
4.1 土地使用變遷之情形 83
4.2 SLEUTH模型模擬分析 95
4.3 生態系統服務之評估 98
4.3.1 碳儲存 (Carbon Storage) 98
4.3.2 棲地品質(Habitat Quality) 106
4.3.3 沉積物傳輸(Sediment Delivery Ratio) 110
4.4 生態系統服務價值 115
第五章 結論與建議 122
5.1 結論 122
5.2 後續研究建議 125
第六章 參考文獻 126
【附錄一】高雄市年降雨資料 132
【附錄二】InVEST模型其他評估模組 133

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