本研究金融市場中股票佔據相當重要的地位，股票價值投資是一種以基本面分析為基礎的投資策略，投資人主要由損益表分析財務狀況的獲利能力、資產負債表的營運能力，來評估企業的內在價值並尋找被低估的股票，買進並長期持有。近年來，隨著資料探勘技術的發展，一些學者開始嘗試將關聯法則應用於股票價值投資中。關聯法則是一種資料探勘技術，用於發現資料庫中的關聯模式。元大台灣50 (0050) 是台灣第一ETF，追蹤台灣證券交易所上市的台灣加權指數。該指數由市值前50大上市公司組成，代表台灣股市的整體表現。統計時間2004年1月收盤為30.3元(還原權值)至2023年12月收盤價132.36(還原權值)，(0050)由上述時間累積報酬率為336.83%，年化報酬率8.07%，本研究以之為對照。
為提高投資人藉由購買個股來提高報酬率，關聯法則可以被用來尋找具有相似特徵的高成長的股票，並分析這些群組之間的關聯關係。例如，研究人員可以利用關聯法則來尋找具有戴維斯效應，低本益比、盈餘高成長率等特徵的股票特性，並進一步分析這些群組的長期績效。本研究採取資料範圍，由台灣發行上市股票為主要研究資料，範圍從2012年01月01日至2023年09月30日止，研究結合基本面每季公布資料中篩選後採用最小支持度與信心度篩選高支持度的替代關聯法則為投資人提供資訊在公布財報後七個月內能達到(0050)績效及降低虧損的風險。

Stocks play a crucial role in the financial market, and value investing is a fundamental analysis-based strategy that evaluates a company's intrinsic value by analyzing its profitability through income statements and operational capabilities through balance sheets. Investors aim to identify undervalued stocks, purchase them, and hold them for the long term.
In recent years, with the advancement of data mining techniques, researchers have ex-plored the application of association rule mining in value investing. Association rule mining is a data mining technique used to discover patterns and relationships within datasets.
Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050), Taiwan's first ETF, tracks the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capi-talization Weighted Stock Index. This index comprises the top 50 listed companies by market capitalization, representing the overall performance of the Taiwanese stock market. From its inception in January 2004 to December 2023, 0050 has achieved a cumulative return of 336.83% with an annualized return of 8.07%.
To enhance investors' returns through individual stock purchases, association rule mining can be employed to identify high-growth stocks with similar characteristics and analyze the associations between these groups. For instance, researchers can utilize association rule mining to identify stocks exhibiting the Davis Double Play effect, low price-to-earnings ratios, and high earnings growth rates, followed by analyzing the long-term performance of these groups.
This study focuses on listed stocks in Taiwan, spanning from January 1, 2012, to Sep-tember 30, 2023. By integrating quarterly fundamental data and applying minimum support and confidence thresholds, the study aims to identify alternative association rules with high support. These rules will provide investors with valuable insights to achieve performance com-parable to 0050 within seven months of financial report releases, while minimizing the risk of losses.

中文摘要......i
英文摘要......ii
誌謝......iii
目錄......iv
表目錄......vi
圖目錄......vii
第一章 緒論......1
1.1 研究問題與動機......1
1.2 研究目的......1
1.3 研究流程......3
第二章 文獻探討......5
2.1 相關財務指標文獻探討......5
2.1.1 營業毛利率......5
2.1.2 營業利益率......5
2.1.3 每股盈餘......5
2.1.4 本益比......6
2.1.5 股東權益報酬率......6
2.1.6 還原收盤價......6
2.1.7 股價淨值比......6
2.1.8 本益成長比......7
2.1.9 年化報酬率......7
2.2 資料探勘......8
2.3 資料探勘的方法......9
2.4 股價預測相關文獻探討......13
第三章 研究方法......14
3.1 相關法則Apriori概念......14
3.2 關聯法則之原則......15
3.3 相關法則Apriori演算......19
第四章 研究內容及分析結果......21
4.1 軟硬體環境......21
4.2 資料蒐集......21
4.3 資料蒐集與整理......22
4.4 資料探勘實作......24
4.5 結果解釋與評估......30
第五章 結論與未來研究方向......32
5.1 結論......32
5.2 未來研究方向......32
參考文獻......34
中文一......34
英文二......35
Extended Abstract......37

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