臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

IT產業為瞬息萬變的產業，故每一家廠商都必須要不斷的更新其軟體版本或開發新的軟體，而產品新進者若欲想要在此區域市場中嶄露頭角，最直接的方式則為提高其產品的市場佔有率，為了達到此企業目標必然要採取一系列的競爭策略。首要之務為瞭解此競爭市場中影響市場佔有率的各個因素及各因素間的關聯程度，在透過以規則為基的模糊認知圖 (Rule-based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps，RB_FCM) 模擬ERP軟體開發的風險值，發現其風險值將會影響到產品新進者的市場佔有率，更會影響此企業之未來發展，故針對風險評估進行策略規劃。
同時針對ERP軟體開發中各個利害關係人進行風險值評估，藉由RB_FCM的方法建構所屬軟體開發流程之風險因子，並將各風險因子間的關係運用模糊規則來描述與推論，提供ERP專案開發者進行專案開發之風險評估與控制改善，使決策者更可根據風險值更具體地提出有效的競爭策略。

The information technology industry is changing very fast, so every manufacturer want to renew its software edition or develop the new software. The most direct method is to raise its market share for a new entrance who wants to enter into a competitive market and grow up. In order to reach the goal, new entrance has to take a series of competitive strategies. First of all, you have to define all kinds of factors and their relationships that would affect the market share. This paper simulates the risk value of ERP software development by Rule-based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (RB_FCM). We find out the risk value would affect the market share so that we will make strategy planning based on risk evaluation.
This paper proposes RB_FCM method to construct the risk factor of ERP software development stakeholders and make risk evaluation. Finally, ERP project developers could carry out the risk evaluation of project development and control improvement by the result of this study, so decision-makers could concretely propose more effective competition strategy based on the risk value.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
目錄 iii
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 策略資源規劃目標 5
2.2 策略層級定義 6
2.3 策略類型 9
2.3.1 Miles & Snow--適應性模式策略 9
2.3.2 Porter--競爭優勢策略 12
2.3.3 動態競爭策略 13
2.4 市場新進者的競爭策略流程 15
2.5 策略資源規劃方法介紹 17
2.5.1 軟系統方法論 19
2.5.2 決策樹 20
2.5.3 層級分析法 20
2.5.4 SWOT分析 21
2.5.5 認知圖 22
第三章 研究方法 24
3.1 系統方法架構 24
3.1.1 定義環境變數 24
3.1.2 風險評估過程 24
3.2 模糊認知圖建構模式 26
3.2.1 認知圖應用 26
3.2.2 模糊認知圖應用 27
3.2.3 運用德菲法建立模糊認知圖 28
3.2.4 系統矩陣之設定及運算 31
3.2.5 模糊規則認知圖 32
3.3 軟體開發風險定義 37
第四章 產品新進者在競爭市場之策略規劃探析 39
4.1 問題敘述 39
4.2 運用德菲法建立RB_FCM 40
4.2.1 建立競爭市場之RB_FCM 40
4.2.2 建立ERP軟體開發專案的風險評估之RB_FCM 43
4.3 新進者之競爭策略案例模擬 49
4.3.1 模擬ERP軟體開發初期之風險值 49
4.3.2 改善ERP軟體開發之風險值策略模擬 53
4.3.3 小結 56
第五章 結論 57
參考文獻 58
附錄 61

[1]Abdullah J. A., Robert T. H., Graham W., "Modelling risks in IS/IT projects through causal and cognitive mapping," Brighton, UK. The Electronic Journal of Information Systems Evaluation, Vol. 8, Iss. 1, pgs 1-10, 2005.
[2]Aguilar, J., "A Survey about Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Papers," International Journal of Computational Cognition, Vol. 3, No. 2, June 2005
[3]Al-Shehab, A, Hughes, B, and Winstanley, G , "Using Causal Mapping Methods to Identify and Analyse Risk in Information System Projects as a Post-Evaluation Process," in Proceedings of ECITE 2004, Amsterdam, 2004.
[4]Bell P.C., "Strategic Operational Research," Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 49, No. 4, 381-391, 1998.
[5]Carlsson C., Fuller R., "Adaptive Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Hyperknowledge Representation in Strategy Formation Process," Technical Report, IAMSR, Abo Akademi University, DataCity A 3210, SF-20520 ¨ Abo, Finland.
[6]Carvalho,J.P., Tomé, J.A., "Rule based fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy cognitive maps—A comparative study," in Proceedings of the 18th International Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society, NAFIPS99, New York, 1999.
[7]Carvallio, J.P. and Tond J.A.B.,"Rule based fuzzy cognitive maps - qualitative systems dynamics," in Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society, NAFIPS2000, Atlanta, 2000.
[8]Chang L. K. , Jun L. W. , Byung K. O, Ho H. J. and Ji Y. P. , "Strategic Planning Simulation Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map Knowledge and Differential Game," Simulation, vol. 71, no. 5,316-327, 1998
[9]Chang L. K., "A Cognitive Map Knowledge-Based Strategic Planning Simulation", Proceedings of 26th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), Wailea (Hawaii), January 1993, 249-267.
[10]Charles W. Hofer and Dan Schendel, Strategy formulation, St.Paul, West Publishing Company, 1978.

[11]Feng L. X. and Lin Y. E., The Reasoning Mechanism of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Proceedings of First International Conference on Semantics, Knowledge and Grid,104-104,2005.
[12]George S. D. and David J. R., Wharton on Dynamic Competitive Strategy, John Wiley & Sons.
[13]Heyer R., Understanding Soft Operations Research: The methods,their application and its future in the Defence setting, Paper presented at the Dfence Science and Technology Organisation Salisburt (Australia) Info Sciences Lab, OCT 2004.
[14]Hofer C. W. and Schendel D., Strategy Formulation: Analytical Concepts, Minnesota,West Publishing Co. 1978.
[15]Kandasamy W. B. V. and Smarandache F. , Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Neutrosophic Cognitive Maps, ProQuest Information & Learning (University of Microfilm International), 2003.
[16]Kang I., Sangjae L. and Choi J., "Using fuzzy cognitive map for the relationship management in airline service," Expert Systems with Applications, Vol.26 , 545–555, 2004.
[17]Kosko B., "Fuzzy cognitive maps," International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Vol.24, 65-75, 1986.
[18]Miles R. E. and Snow C.C., Organizational Strategy, Structure and Process, New York: McGraw-HillMiles, 1978.
[19]Nabil D. P. S., Project evaluation using fuzzy logic and risk analysis techniques, University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez Campus, 2006.
[20]Porter M. E., Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance, New York: Free Press. 1985.
[21]Porter M. E., Competitive Strategies, NY: Free Press, 1980.
[22]Porter M. W. and Millar V. E., "How Information Gives You Competitive Advantage," Harvard Business Review, Vol.63, No.4, pp.59-81, 1985.

[23]Sharif, A. M. , "Advancing The State of The Art in The Modelling and Simulation of Information Systems Evaluation", Proceedings of European and Mediterranean Conference on Information Systems, July 6-7 2006.
[24]Williams, T. M., " Risk management infrastructures," International Journal of Project Management Vol.11, pp.5-10, 1993.
[25]Zhi, H., "Risk management for overseas construction projects," International Journal of Project Management , Vol. 13, pp. 231-237, 1995.
[26]司徒達賢 (2005)，策略管理新論：觀念架構與分析方法，台北市：遠流出版社。
[27]吳信輝 (2001)，應用模糊認知圖於都市規劃系統關聯之初探，交通大學運輸研究所碩士論文，新竹市。
[28]李璞良譯 (2005)，華頓商學院—動態競爭策略，台北市：商周出版。
[29]林隆儀譯 (2006)，行銷策略管哩，台北市：麥格羅希爾出版。
[30]張嘉雯 (2001)，競爭策略、組織間關係策略、組織間關係管理型態與競爭優勢關係之探討，逢甲大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，台中市。
[31]陳苑欽、李金梅及黃君慧譯 (2004)，企業策略，台北市：台灣培生教育出版股份有限公司。