臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文針對台灣出境旅客，探討自1992年至2010年間，最可能影響台灣出境旅客出國目的地選擇之關鍵因素。檢視台灣交通部觀光局之旅客入境資料，其詳細記載旅客入境之目的，如探親、洽公、觀光等；然而，出境資料並無如入境一樣加以記載國人出國旅遊之目的。因此本文合理推測，其國人出國之目的並非全然以觀光為主。有鑑於此，本文藉由迴歸模型(Regression Model)檢視國人出境人數是否受到雙邊貿易(洽公)之影響。由交通部觀光局資料顯示，國人出國旅遊目的地有特定的集中性，因此本文即採用總共占國人出國旅遊目的地50%以上之國家做為代表性之研究。實證結果指出雙邊貿易因素對於大部分的國家並無顯著性之影響，推測大多數旅客出國洽公目的地為越南等較新興之國家為主。另外，對於距離較遠以及物價較高的國家其運輸成本與所得皆有顯著性的影響。

In connect with Taiwan outbound tourists, this thesis probe into the cause of the key factors that affect travel willingness of outbound tourists. To view the data of Taiwan tourism bureau, inbound data are recorded by the purpose, such as visiting relatives, business or tourism. However, outbound data are not. Therefore, the thesis infer reasonable that not all of the outbound tourists are travel tourists. Maybe some of them are business traveler. In the view of this, the thesis uses the regression model to exam the relationship between Taiwan outbound tourists and bilateral trade. Due to the data of Taiwan tourism bureau, the destinations for Taiwan outbound tourists are focus on three to four countries, these countries occupied more than fifty percent of total outbound tourists. The thesis adapts these specific and representative countries to exam the relationship. The empirical results show that bilateral trade is not significant to most of countries and infer that business traveler are mainly going to emerging countries such as Vietnam. Moreover, distance and income are mainly significant to the country which is too far away from Taiwan and too expensive for Taiwan tourists.

Table of Contents
Title page.........................................................................................................................i
Letter of Approval..........................................................................................................ii
Letter of Authority........................................................................................................iii
Chinese Abstract...........................................................................................................iv
English Abstract.............................................................................................................v
Acknowledgements.......................................................................................................vi
Table of contents..........................................................................................................vii
List of Figures..............................................................................................................ix
List of Tables.................................................................................................................x

1. Introduction..............................................................................................................1
1.1 The importance of tourism industry.................................................................1
1.2 The development of outbound and inbound market.........................................2
1.3 Outbound tourists and the destination choice...................................................4
2. Literature Review.....................................................................................................6
2.1 Tourism and the importance.............................................................................6
2.2 Tourism demand: inbound and outbound tourists............................................8
2.3 Econometric model of tourism demand method............................................10
2.4 Factors that affect the tourism demand..........................................................11
2.5 Taiwan outbound tourists...............................................................................14
3. Modeling and Methodology...................................................................................15
3.1 Variable Selection..........................................................................................16
3.2 Unit Root Tests............................................................................................19
3.3 Lag Length Decision....................................................................................21
3.4 Destination Choice.......................................................................................21
3.5 Data..............................................................................................................23

4. Empirical Results...................................................................................................28
4.1 Unit Root Tests.................................................................................................28
4.2 Hypothesis........................................................................................................28
4.3 Empirical Results.............................................................................................31
4.4 Rolling Regression...........................................................................................37
5. Concluding Remarks..............................................................................................38
5.1 Main Findings................................................................................................38
5.2 Research Limitations......................................................................................41
5.3 Some Extensions............................................................................................42
6. References..............................................................................................................43
7. Appendix................................................................................................................48
Appendix 1: Stationary Test by ADF Unit Root of Variables.........................................................................................................48
Appendix 2: Stationary Test by ADF Unit Root of Year Growth Rate Variables.........................................................................................................50
Appendix 3: The Results of Rolling Regression...........................................52
Appendix 4: Fuel Tax of Flight Ticket..........................................................60
Appendix 5: Outbound trip purpose in 2009.................................................61
Appendix 6: the expenses of outbound tourists.............................................62
Appendix 7: the empirical results of Vietnam................................................63

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