模擬軟體發展程序最主要的目的在透過模擬幫助管理人員衡量資源投入績效產出之狀況。在本論文中，發展了一軟體程序模擬的通用架構，此通用架構不僅可適用於不同的模擬方式，還可以很方便讓我們直接轉成物件導向的軟體發展程序的模擬。
本模擬首先以IEEE/EIA 12207的執行程序為主，再使用統一模型語言的工具，並將建構出軟體程序的模型。最主要的好處是利用以前已制定完整的標準來瞭解軟體程序的內容，並以此為參考，提出一套以UML表達的模擬架構，再加以細緻化，如此，我們便可以很容易轉換成我們想要具有通用性的軟體程序模擬工具。最後，我們希望以此軟體程序模擬，來分析影響專案品質的各項因素，並釐清相關議題（在此我們以是否採用IV&V之議題為例），可供給軟體專案管理人員參考。

The most important goal of the simulating software development processes is to help the manager to measure throughput during simulating processes. In this thesis, To develop a general structure of software process simulation. It is not only suitable for different simulation methods, but also make us easier to transfer it into object-oriented and software development processes.
The simulation is based on the implement process of IEEE/EIA 12207, and we use unified model language to constructing the software process model. The major advantage is that we can make use of the completely formulated standard to understand the software process content. Based on the standard, we can bring up a simulation to present structure using UML, and refined it. Also, it is easier to transfer to the general software process simulating tools. Finally, we hope the software development process simulation can analysis the factors influencing the project quality, and clear up the related subject. we take example using IV&V or not, this can provide reference materials for the software project manager.

一、緒論……………………………………………………………1
二、背景及相關研究………………………………………………3
2.1 UML的背景及簡介……………………………………3
2.1.1 UML背景…………………………………………3
2.1.2 UML簡介…………………………………………3
2.2 軟體發展程序模擬的相關研究………………………………7
三、以UML為基礎的模擬架構…………………………………… 10
3.1使用12207軟體發展程序標準為架構…………………………10
3.2建立通用性的軟體程序模擬架構……………………………19
四、軟體程序模擬…………………………………………………28
4.1模擬的實施方法…………………………………… 28
4.1.1 按時模式概觀……….………….…………… 28
4.1.2 按時模式詳細架構…………………………… 29
4.1.3 逾時模式概觀………………………………… 30
4.1.4 逾時模式詳細架構…………………………… 31
4.2軟體程序模擬相關資料………………………………32
五、模擬結果及分析………………………………………………38
5.1案例模擬與分析……………………………………38
5.2模擬結果總結……………………………………… 54
六、結論及未來研究………………………………………………56
參考文獻……………………………………………………………58
附錄A、按時完成缺失產生程式片段……………………………60
附錄B、逾時完成缺失產生程式片段…………………………… 61
附錄C、缺失移除程式片段……………………………………… 63
附錄D、缺失產生表……………………………………………… 65
附錄E、缺失移除表………………………………………………66
附錄F、表格數據產生說明……………………………………… 67

[1] Marc I. Kellner, "Software process simulation modeling: Why? What? How? ", Elsevier Science Inc, 1999.
[2] Shinji Kusumoto , “A New Softawre Project Simulator Based on Generalized Stochastic Petri-net”, Proceeding of 19th International Conference on Software Engineering, pp 293-302, 1997.
[3] Chi Y. Lin, “Software-Engineering Process Simulation Model(SEPS)”, J. SYSTEM SOFTWARE, 38, pp.263 — 277, 1997.
[4] Dale Karolak, "Software Engineering Risk Management", IEEE Computer Society, 1999.
[5] David M. Raffo, Joseph V. Vandeville, Robert H. Martin, "Software process simulation to achieve higher CMM levels", Elsevier Science Inc, 1999.
[6] Ioana Rus, James Coolofello, Peter Lakey, "Software process simulation for reliability management", Elsevier Science Inc, 1999.
[7] Dirk Jager, Ansgar Schleicher, and Bernhard Westfechtel, "Using UML for Software Process Modeling”, 7th European Software Engineering Conference, Toulouse, France, Sep, 1999.
[8] Barbara Kitchenham and StePhen Linkman, "Estimates, Uncertainty, and Risk", IEEE Software, 1997.
[9] Capers Jones, “Software benchmarking”, IEEE Computer, Oct, 1995.
[10] James Arthur, “Evaluating the Effectiveness of Independent Verification and Validation”, IEEE Computer , Oct, 1999.
[11] Ray Madachy and Denton Tarbet, "Initial Experience in Software Process Modeling", July 2000, http://sqp.asq.org/vol2_issue3/sqp_v2i3_madachy.html/
[12] Norman E. Fenton, Martin Neil, "Software metrics:successes,failures and new directions", The Journal of Systems and Software, 47, pp. 149-157. 1999.
[13] Albert L. Lederer, "Causes of Inaccurate Software Development Cost Estimates", Elsevier Science Inc., 1995
[14] James J. Jiang, "Perceptions of System development failures", Elsevier Science Inc., 1998.
[15] Dien D. Phan, “Empirical studies in software development projects:Field Survey and OS/400 study”, Elsevier Science B.V., 1995.
[16] Dien D. Phan, “Managing software quality in very large development project”, Elsevier Science B.V., 1995.
[17] Xuemei Zhang, Hoang Pham, “An analysis of factors affecting software reliability”, Elsevier Science Inc.,2000.
[18] 王德劭, “IEEE/EIA 12207 程序本質與程序模擬”, 元智大學資工所碩士論文,1999.