本文主要是探討環境因素對投資行為及投資情緒的影響，並參考學者的文獻資料後，選定四項天氣因素，如雲量、日照時數、氣溫及濕度，再加入經濟因素，即台股指數、台灣出口值與道瓊工業指數，把融資餘額及融券張數作為投資行為之代理變數，研究期間為2008年至2017年共計120筆月資料。研究結果顯示，環境因素中有六項對融資餘額有影響，而融券張數較不受天氣因素影響，推測其原因可能是與科技的進步有關。台灣股票市場結構以散戶投資人為大宗，融資、融券一般為散戶等自然人在使用，人是最容易受到環境因素變化所影響，散戶投資人受影響產生的情緒將他們分類成不同的投資族群，而不同的投資族群會對股票市場有不同的影響，因此本篇論文之結果，給予散戶投資人在環境因素變化時，能用以作投資決策之參考指標。

This paper focuses on the effect of environmental factors on investment behavior and investment sentiment. On the basis of literature, we include sky cover, sunshine, temperature, humidity as environmental variables. Additionally, the explanatory variables cover export value, TAIEX and Dow Jone Index as economic factors. The proxy variables of investment behavior are the amount of margin and sheet of margins. Respectively. The sample period ranges from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the explanatory others are significantly affect the amount of margin except humidity. We find less evidence that the effect of the environmental factor on the sheet of margins. The reason might be related to the technological progress. The structure of stock market in Taiwan is dominated by individual investors. Financing and securities lending are generally used by individual investors. People are most vulnerable to changes in environmental factors, and individual investors’ sentiments affecting them are classified into different investment groups. Different investment groups might have different effects on the stock market. Therefore, the results of this paper could propose individual investors the ability to employ them as a reference for investment decisions as change in environmental factors.

目錄 I
摘要 IV
Abstract V
誌謝 VI
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VIII

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機及背景 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 心理學之相關研究 8
第二節 行為財務學之相關研究 9
第三節 環境因素之相關研究 11
第四節 融資行為之相關研究 15
第三章 研究方法 16
第一節 資料來源 16
第二節 變數定義 16
一、 投資人行為及情緒之代理變數 16
二、 環境因素－天氣因素 17
三、 經濟因素 20
第三節 實證模型 22
一、 定態檢定 22
二、 複迴歸模型 24
第四節 研究假說的設立 27
第四章 實證結果與分析 37
第一節、基本敘述性統計 37
第二節、ADF檢定 38
第三節、Pearson相關係數 39
第四節、迴歸模型估計結果 41
第五章 結論 49
參考文獻 51
英文部分 54

表目錄
表3-1變數定義 26
表3-2研究假說預期方向 33
續表3-2研究假說預期方向 36
表4-1基本敘述性統計 37
表4-2 ADF檢定 38
表4-3相關性分析表 40
表4-4 環境因素與投資行為的迴歸分析 43
表4-5股票報酬與融資、融券的迴歸分析結果 44
表4-6 環境因素與投資行為的迴歸分析結果 46
表4-7 環境因素與投資情緒的迴歸分析結果 48

圖目錄
圖1-1台灣股市散戶投資人市場佔有率 4
圖1-2研究流程 7

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