伴隨著經濟的快速成長而引申出運具的高度持有情況，已常見於各個已開發國家及開發中國家，又高度汽機車使用及持有情況將使得都會區之交通情況更為壅擠，並且汽機車廢氣排放情形亦使得全球暖化問題更具嚴重，因此如何的有效管理汽機車持有以及使用之情形，將是未來不可避免之議題。然而過去文獻所探討之運輸需求領域多著重於私人運具為範疇，亦鮮少將大眾運具納入共同探討，因此無法了解家戶特性對其二者之影響關係，再者，若是將家戶中之汽車與機車持有情形視作一類作為私人運具探討時，將無法檢視出家戶特性對私人汽車及機車需求之影響，為了解上述之情況，故本研究將分別設立三個模型以利進行家戶特性對各運具需求之探討。
本研究主旨以台灣個體家戶為研究單位進行運具需求管理之探討，並透過行政院主計處之家庭收支調查資料，分析各家戶特性以解釋對運具需求所產生之影響，本研究資料年度涵蓋自西元2000至2006年共95904筆觀測值，研究模型將家戶運具需求分為大眾運具需求及私人運具需求，分別透過線性迴歸以及非線性之卜瓦松迴歸進行探討，研究模型中所含變數包含汽機車持有數、家戶可支配所得、汽油零售價格以及家戶各項支出項變數等。
由研究結果顯示地區特性對於運具需求具有相當大之差異，大眾運具需求較高之地區為北部地區，而私人運具需求較高之地區則為東部地區。人口特性因素對於大眾運具需求之影響僅0-6歲學齡前人口數為負向影響，其可能原因在於父母親關心未成年子女安全因素，故多使用私人運具接送，因此對大眾運具需求產生負向之影響，其餘年齡層皆對家戶之大眾運具需求具有正面之影響，而人口特性對私人運具需求之影響則不同於大眾需求，其各年齡層皆會對私人運具需求產生正面之影響，因此各年齡層人數增加時皆會使的私人運具之持有情況產生增加之影響。而各項收入及支出特性方面，僅運具購置支出對家戶大眾運具需求具有負面影響之外其餘皆為正面影響，其原因於運具購置支出越多時，將會使得民眾私人運具之持有或使用情況越是增加，因此對大眾運具需求具有負面的影響；而收入支出特性對私人運具之影響而言，結果顯示僅旅遊支出產生負面之影響，其餘皆對私人運具需求具有正面之影響效果；汽油零售價格對於運具需求而言具有負面之影響，因此當油價上漲時將對運具需求具有抑制之作用。透過上述結果以了解各項家戶特性對運具需求之影響，以提供政府單位擬定運具需求管制措施時之方針。

In recent years, most transport demand analysis focus on private transport demand; however, the public transportation also plays an important role in transportation. In order to understand the effect of household characteristics on transport demand, three demand models are developed in this study to examine the influence of household characteristics on transport demand in Taiwan. The first model uses linear regression to analyze the effects of household characteristics on public transport demand, and the second and third model use Poisson regression in order to estimate the influence of household characteristics on cars and motorbikes. A disaggregate household data set collected from ”the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure” during 2000 to 2006 is used in this study.
Results of this analysis show that most variables have significant effects on three transport demands. The public transport demand decreases as more cars and/or motorbikes are available. Cars and motorbikes show a replaceable relation. In addition, households own more private vehicles, with tendencies of more gasoline consumption and more repair expenditure. However, household income shows no significant effect to transport demand.

The variables of household demographic characteristics have similar effects on both private and public transportation except the 0-to-6-year-old effects. Only the 0-to -6-year-old children show negative effect to public demand but positive effect to private transport demand.

目次 VI
表次 VIII
圖次 IX
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 3
1.3研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 7
2.1臺灣道路運輸需求概況 7
2.2大眾運具需求 14
2.3私人運具需求 20
2.3.1運具持有與使用文獻 21
2.3.2需求管理政策相關文獻 25
2.4文獻綜合評述 31
第三章 方法論 32
3.1 理論模型與架構 32
3.1.2 多元線性迴歸分析 (Multiple Linear Regression Analysis) 33
3.1.3 卜瓦松迴歸模型 (Poisson Regression Model) 34
3.2 實證模型 36
3.2.1大眾運具需求模型 36
3.2.2 私人運具需求模型 37
3.3 資料特性與描述 39
第四章 實證分析 43
4.1敘述性統計分析 43
4.2各縣市對區域運具需求之變異數分析 46
4.3檢視多重共線性 54
4.4大眾運具需求模型 55
4.5卜瓦松迴歸 58
4.5.1汽車需求實證模型結果 58
4.5.2機車需求實證模型結果 60
第五章 結論與建議 64
5.1結論 64
5.2後續研究及建議 67
參考文獻 69
中文文獻 69
英文文獻 71
政府機構網站資料 77
附錄 78

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政府機構網站資料
1.交通部全球資訊網之交通統計
http://210.69.99.7/mocwebGIP/wSite/mp?mp=1
2.交通部高速鐵路工程局
http://www.hsr.gov.tw/
3.交通部運輸研究所
http://www.iot.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1
4.行政院主計處-家庭收支調查
http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=19882&CtNode=3101
5.行政院主計處-國民所得統計摘要
http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=15060&ctNode=3572
6.臺灣鐵路管理局
http://www.railway.gov.tw/index/index.aspx