臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

我國自2002年1月16日開始發行公益彩券，第一年銷售金額立即突破990億元。雖然之後每年年銷售金額均無法超越第一年的銷售數字，但累計至2008年底，公益彩券之銷售總金額已超過5,425 億元。本文主要目的是針對2008年資料，探討我國彩券消費者在社會大眾中族群的分布狀況與分析影響購買彩券意願與數量的因素，並與林恭正(2005)研究之2003年的研究結果比較，觀察對彩券需求因素變動的情形。
本文採用主計處之民國97年度(2008年)中華民國台灣地區家庭收支調查資料，來評估民眾的彩券需求，以18歲以上之戶長為研究對象並刪除樣本數極端值後（如彩券支出超過60萬元之極少數樣本），本研究樣本數共13,741人，其中有購買彩券的樣本有5,665人。假設消費者對彩券需求為兩階段消費模型方式，首先以Probit模型評估購買彩券與否的決策，再以Truncated Tobit模型評估已購買彩券的情況下影響購買金額多寡的因素。
有別於其他應用家庭收支調查資料只探討一年彩券需求的相關研究，本文分別評估2003年及2008年決定彩券需求的因素，並進一步比較其變化情況。在評估第一階段影響購買彩券與否的決策分析中，2003年與2008年的估計結果有些許之差異，僅有部分變數具顯著性且有相同的影響方向；然而在第二階段評估影響彩券購買金額多寡的結果分析發現，2003年原與彩券購買金額為替代關係的捐贈或菸酒等支出，在彩券發行後的第7年(2008)與彩券購買金額的替代關係變得不顯著，意味著彩券銷售步入較為穩定的第7年後，對已購買彩券者而言，捐贈或菸酒等支出的排擠彩券支出效果已不復存在。

In Taiwan, the lottery launched since the January of 2002. The sale amount of first year was up to 99 billion NTD. Although the amounts of sales in the following years are less than the sale of first year, the accumulation amounts from 2002 to 2008 have surpassed 542.5 billion. The main purposes of this article are to discuss the distribution of social characteristics of Taiwan lotto purchasers and to analyze the factors that influence the willingness and the amounts of lottery demand in 2008. In order to understand how the demand for lottery changes, the empirical results of 2008 will be compared to the results in 2003 from previous study.
This study uses the lottery expenditure of the responders of The 2008 Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (SFIE) in Taiwan Area of Republic of China. The samples are the head of family whose age exceeded 18 years old and the extreme values (for example, the expenditure of lottery is more than 600,000 NTD) are eliminated. This study adopts 13,741 samples, among these 5,665 being lottery buyers. Under the assumption of a two stages consumption modeling approach for lottery demand, the first stage of estimation uses a Probit specification to model the probability of purchasing a ticket, and then, the second stage of estimation models actual lottery expenditure conditional on participation.
Different from other researches which only discussed the annual demand for lottery, this study discusses and compares the impact factors of the lottery demands between 2003 and 2008. The results of the first estimation for the probability of purchasing a ticket are little different between 2003 and 2008, and there are only few variables with statistically significant impacts and the same impact direction. For the results of the second stage estimation, the substitution relationship between the lottery expenditures and donation or the lottery expenditures and alcohol or tobacco in 2003 becomes ambiguous and not significant in 2008. This implies the expenditures of donation or alcohol or tobacco would not affect the expenditures of lottery after the 7th year of lottery issuing.

章節目錄
頁次
中文摘要 I
Abstract II
章節目錄 III
圖次 IV
表次 IV
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第三節 研究目的 4
第四節 論文架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 彩券需求 7
第二節 彩券需求模型 19
第三章 研究方法 21
第四章 資料處理與分析 25
第一節 樣本敘述 25
第二節 資料處理及結果分析 25
第五章 結論與建議 37
第一節 結論 37
第二節 後續研究建議 38
參考文獻 39

網站部分
中央研究院調查研究專題中心http://srda.sinica.edu.tw/
台灣彩券http://www.taiwanlottery.com.tw/
行政院主計處http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1
全國文獻服務傳遞系統http://ndds.stpi.org.tw/
家庭收支調查報告http://www129.tpg.gov.tw/mbas/income.htm。
國家圖書館—全國博碩士論文網http://etds.ncl.edu.tw/theabs/index.html

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