臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

華人社會中，人們迷信著龍年出生的人較其他生肖會有較佳的命運，因此，人們為了生龍子龍女，會有計畫的調節生育時間。本文使用華人動態家庭資料庫，RR2007至RR2011年之問卷資料進行分析，首先使用最小平方法加上群集(clustered)之限制與隨機效果模型之Panel data model來分析薪資與各生肖之間的關係，接著使用隨機效果模型之Panel data model與ordered probit加上群集(clustered)之限制來看各生肖與快樂及健康之關係，實證結果顯示，龍子龍女在薪資、教育、快樂及健康方面並沒有比其他生肖來的好。

With traditional superstition, people believe children who were born in the Year of Dragon are believed to be blessed with luck and strength. Therefore, parents with Dragon Year preference will change their reproductive behavior. This article uses the data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics(PSFD). The data are based on RR2007 to RR2011. We use OLS with clustered constrained and Random Effect Model with Panel data model to examine if Dragon babies indeed have a significant earnings advantage than others in their future. Then, we use Random Effect Model with Panel data model and Ordered Probit Model with clustered constrained to examine if Dragon adults indeed have a greater degree of happiness and health status than aldults of other zodiacs. The results from our empirical models showed that individuals born during the Dragon year do not show any difference on individual’s earnings, health status and happiness when compared to individuals of other Chinese zodiacs.

第一章 緒論 …………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的 ……………………………1
第二節 研究架構 ……………………………………3
第二章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………6
第三章 資料來源與變數說明 ………………………9
第一節 資料來源 ……………………………………9
第二節 變數說明與樣本特性 ………………………9
第四章 研究方法與模型架構 ………………………14
第一節 薪資迴歸模型 ………………………………14
第二節 快樂程度模型 ………………………………15
第五章 實證分析結果 ………………………………18
第一節 敘述統計分析 ………………………………18
第二節 薪資迴歸實證分析 …………………………20
第三節 快樂與健康實證分析 ………………………23
第四節 邊際效果分析 ………………………………29
第六章 結論與建議 …………………………………33
　第一節 結論 ………………………………………33
　　第二節 建議 ……………………………………34
參考文獻 ……………………………………………35

參考文獻
Abeysinghe, T., 1991, A seasonal analysis of Chinese births. Journal of applied statistics, 18(2), 275-286.
Akabayashi, H., 2006, Who Suffered From the Marriage Market? The Case of Hinoeuma in Japan Keio University
Aso, Takenori. 1978, Cultural Influences on Fertility in Japan: The Case of the Years of the Fire Horse as an Application of the Modified Demographic Transition Model.
Cho, L. J., & Retherford, R. D., 1973, Comparative analysis of recent fertility trends in East Asia.
Dawit Senbet, Wei-Chiao Huang, 2012, Do Gragons Have Better Fate? Revisited Using The U.S Data. International Journal of Economics and Research, 101-118
Do, Q., Phung, T., 2009, The Importance of being Wanted. BREAD Working Paper 225.
Freedman, R., & Sun, T. H., 1969, Taiwan: Fertility trends in a Crucial period of transition. Studies in Family Planning, 1(44), 15-19.
Goodkind, D., 1991, Creating New Traditions in Modern Chinese Populations: Aiming for Birth in the Year of the Dragon. Population and Development Review, 17, 663–86.
Goodkind, D., 1993, New Zodiacal Influences on Chinese Family Formation: Taiwan, 1976. Demography, 30, 27-142.
Goodkind, D.,1996, Chinese Lunar Birth Timing in Singapore: New Concerns for Child Quality amidst Multicultural Modernity. Journal of Marriage and the Family,58(3), 784–95.
Kaku, K., Matsumoto, Y.S., 1975, Influence of a Folk Superstition on Fertility of Japanese in California and Hawaii. 1966, America Journal of Public Health 65m 170-174.
Li, W. L., 1973, Temporal and spatial analysis of fertility decline in Taiwan.Population Studies, 27(1), 97-104.
Park, C.B., Cho, N.H., 1995, Consequences of Son preference in a low fertility soceity：Implications of the sex ratio at birth in Korea. Population and Development Review 21, 59-84.
Pao, Lien Ho. Good Timing! Just in Time to squeeze in a Dragon Baby. January, 1976.
Noel, D.J & John, V.C Nye., 2011, Does fortune favor dragons? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 78, 85-97.
Sun, Te-Hsiung, Hui-Sheng Lin, and Ronald Freedman. 1978, Trends in Fertility, Family Size Preferences, and Family Planning Practice, Taiwan: 1961-1976, Studies in Family Planning 9:54-86.
Thornton, A., Lin, H.S., 1994, Social Change and Family in Taiwan. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Vere, J. P., 2008, Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 70(3), 303-325.
Yip P., L. Joseph, and Y. Cheung, 2002, The influence of the Chinese zodiac on fertility in Hong Kong SAR. Social Science and Medicine, 55, 1803-1812.
Young, E. 1995. Cat and Rat: The Legend of the Chinese Zodiac. H. Holt.
Yue, J. C., & Lan, M. W., 2013, A study of fertility projection model in Taiwan area. Journal of Population Studies, 27(12), 105-131.