近幾年來，由於化石燃料的稀少使生質能源需求日漸益增，這也加速了此產業在國際貿易的發展，生質能源產業的發展潛力預期會在2050年達到每年約有500 EJ的貿易量。此篇研究提出在不確定性因子下的跨國型供應鏈數學規劃的模型，而我們所考慮的不確定性因子包括市場的需求及價格；供應鏈模型的國家包含了東南亞、歐洲及北美，生質柴油的原料的種植生產地及榨油廠假設在東南亞的國家，而歐洲及北美則假設是煉油廠並且將從東南亞國家運送來的植物油轉化為生質柴油並根據歐洲及北美的政府規定售於當地需求。本研究的全國供應鏈模型必須在不確定性因子下決定如何分配東南亞國家的土地種植地及最佳的運送路徑使達到最大的獲利。
這篇文獻主要分兩大部份。第一部分為分析經濟利益及計算各生物質之碳排放量，包含大豆、油菜籽、棕櫚樹、痲瘋樹、蓖麻油和廢食用油。識別生質能源價值之高經濟利益及低碳排放是有用的及有助於生物質的最佳發展。第二部分為建構兩階段混整數隨機規劃，在不確定下決定全球生質能源的最佳化設計供應鏈模型。第一部分包含決策最佳化資本額，而第二部分則探討此階段之資源決策，以及建議在各種情境下之最佳運輸路線。

During the past decade, the demand for biofuel has rapidly increased because of fossil fuel scarcity, which has resulted in the accelerating commercialization of the global biofuel industry. The development of international biofuel markets is expected to produce a global bioenergy potential of approximately 500 EJ per year by 2050. This study proposed a mathematical programming model for the optimal design of the global biofuel supply chain under uncertainty. We considered the uncertain factors of price and market demand. This uncertainty complicates the assessment of investment. The supply chain model involves countries in Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America. The raw material used for biodiesel formulation is produced in Southeast Asian planting fields and oil extraction factories. The refinery factory sites, where raw material is transformed into biodiesel, are located in Europe and North America. The resulting product is sold to customers in Europe and North America according to local government policies. This study aimed to determine how to allocate biomass cultivated area in Southeast Asia (i.e., optimal crop portfolio allocation) and to identify the optimal transportation paths under uncertainty to maximize the expected global profit in this supply chain.

This paper is divided into two main sections. The first section analyzes economic benefits and calculates the carbon emissions of biomass types, including soybean, rapeseed, palm trees, jatropha, castor, and waste cooking oil. Identifying valuable biodiesel with high economic benefits and low carbon emissions is useful and contributes to the optimal development of biomass. The second part formulates a two-stage recourse mixed-integer stochastic programing to determine the optimal design of a global biodiesel supply chain model under uncertainty. The first section involves a stage decision regarding optimal capital investment, whereas the second section discusses a stage recourse decision and suggests the optimal transportation flow in each scenario.

摘要 I
Abstract II
Acknowledgements III
Table of Contents V
List of Figures VIII
List of Tables X
Terminology and Notations XII
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Problem Statement and Research Purpose 7
1.3 Research Overview 8
Chapter 2 Literature Review 10
2.1 Introduction for Biodiesel Manufacturing Process 10
2.1.1 Micro-emulsions 10
2.1.2 Pyrolysis 12
2.1.3 Transesterification 14
2.2 Energy Efficiency Assessment 17
2.2.1 Measures of energy efficiency 17
2.2.3 Application of measures of energy efficiency performance 18
2.2.2 Sustainability evaluation of biodiesel 20
2.3 Biodiesel Economic Analysis 23
2.3.1 Biodiesel production process 24
2.4 Biofuel Supply Chain design 26
2.4.1 Transportation and Inventory Management 30
2.4.2 Land Use Change and Competition 30
2.4.3 Environmental and Social Impacts 31
2.4.4 Biofuel Supply Chain under Uncertainty 32
2.4.5 Multi-period model 33
2.4 Summary and Discussion 34
Chapter 3. Economic Benefits Regarding Analysis and Environmental Assessment of Biodiesel 37
3.1 Research framework 37
3.2 Research Methods 39
3.2.1 Biodiesel Economic Benefit Analysis 39
3.2.2 Environmental assessment 52
3.2.3 Comparing biodiesel 54
3.3 Summary and Discussion 55
4.1 Problem Statement 57
4.2 Mathematical Model 61
4.2.1 Two-Stage Recourse Problems 61
4.2.2 Objective Function 62
4.2.3 Biomass Related Constraints 63
4.2.4 Mass Balance for Preprocessing Plants 63
4.2.5 Mass Balance for Customer 64
4.3 Result and Discussion 68
4.3.1 Model Inputs 68
4.3.2 Result 73
Chapter 5. Conclusion and Future Research 78
References 79
Appendix 82

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