臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　台灣地區隨著周休二日之實施，國人對休閒活動及觀光旅遊需求增加，家庭休閒消費支出亦呈現逐年成長之趨勢。但近年受到全球景氣衰退之影響，民間消費明顯下降，為了瞭解景氣衰退對家庭休閒消費支出所造成的影響，本研究藉由Double Hurdle模型檢視經濟景氣衰退時，家計單位對於休閒活動之參與意願及消費金額是否受到影響，並透過分量迴歸(quantile regression)方法衡量在選擇參與各項休閒活動之家庭中，當經濟景氣衰退對家庭休閒消費支出之影響。

　　以2005年至2011年行政院主計處家庭收支調查報告為研究資料，實證結果發現不同類型休閒活動受到景氣衰退之影響不同。在各項休閒活動參與意願方面，套裝旅遊、書報雜誌、娛樂器材受到經濟景氣衰退影響皆呈現參與意願下降之情況，僅娛樂消遣服務之參與意願上升。此外，消費金額方面，娛樂消遣服務支出及娛樂器材支出受到景氣衰退之影響而減少，書報雜誌支出則呈現上升之趨勢。在不同休閒消費支出分量中，受到景氣衰退影響程度也不同，是以往傳統普通最小平方法迴歸分析觀察不到之現象。同時，戶長之社會經濟變數以及家庭結構變數對於家計單位各項休閒消費購買行為也扮演重要之角色，特別是家庭可支配所得及戶長教育程度，皆與家庭休閒消費支出呈現正向關係。

　　本研究結果可提供予我國政府或休閒產業做為參考之資訊，在景氣衰退期間可增加舉辦娛樂消遣服務活動，例如：各種競賽、球類運動、展覽、音樂會、舞會等，以吸引國人參與。

　　With the implementation of“two-days off a week”work policy, leisure demands and household leisure expenditures are also experiencing a steady upsurge with every passing year. However, with the impact of global economic recession, consumption expenditure decreased. In order to analyze the relationship between recession and household leisure expenditures, this research use the Double Hurdle model to explore the willingness to participate in leisure activities and the amount of spending during the recession. This research also uses the quantile regression model to examine the leisure expenditure during the economic recession.

　　Data used in this research is from the 2005 to 2011“Survey of Family Income and　 Expenditures”(SFIE).Empirical results of the Double Hurdle model show that individuals would have less willingness to participate in travel, and purchase books, magazines, or entertainment equipments; but have more willingness to participate in recreation activities during recession. Furthermore, individuals would spend less money on recreation activities and entertainment equipments purchases but spend more money on books and magazines purchases during the recession. Results of the quantile regression indicate recession indeed have different effects on leisure expenditure in each quantile setting. In addition, household head socioeconomic status and family composition are also factors that affect the leisure expenditures.

　　In order to maintain healthy lifestyles, results of this study may provide good reference for government or related business a good reference to provide extensive leisure activities during recession.

第一章 緒論......................1
　第一節 　研究背景與動機............1
　第二節 　研究目的.................5
　第三節 　研究流程.................7
第二章 文獻回顧...................8
　第一節 　休閒支出相關文獻...........8
　第二節 　旅遊支出相關文獻..........11
　第三節 　小結....................12
第三章 研究方法...................15
　第一節 　研究工具.................15
　第二節 　研究資料來源..............19
　第三節 　變數說明及假設.............22
第四章 實證結果與分析...............30
　第一節 　Double Hurdle模型分析.....30
　第二節 　分量迴歸分析...............46
第五章 結論與建議..................67
　第一節 　結論.....................67
　第二節 　建議與研究限制.............69
參考文獻...........................71
　一、中文部分......................71
　二、西文部分......................72
　三、參考網站......................74

中文部分
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20.謝淑芬(2007)，「家計單位人口結構對旅遊消費支出影響之研究－分量迴歸模型之應用」，《戶外休憩研究》，20(3)，頁47-72。

二、西文部分
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6.Eliot Davila (2011),“Employment in leisure and hospitality departs from historical trends during 2007–09 recession,Monthly Labor Review, 134(4), 49-52.
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三、參考網站
1.行政院主計總處
http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1
3.台灣地區家庭收支調查
http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/fies/