有關家戶對住宅之選擇行為，長期以來一直是重要的研究課題。由於家戶在住宅選擇時通常包含甚為複雜的過程，其中隱含的不確定性甚高。加以消費者對自身需求並非明確具體，而具主觀感認的模糊性，欲取得明確的資訊實際上是非常困難的。即使資料中所給予的明確資訊是否能真正表現出消費者本身在偏好上的模糊特性，亦值得商榷。因此，瞭解購屋家戶對住宅選擇的偏好與行為評估準則對於政府擬定住宅政策及業者提供適切的住宅產品將會是非常有助益的。本研究將主題將界定在方法論的比較上。主要目的在建立一個更趨近於人類主觀感認(subjective perception)的真實行為可以處理語意變數之個體家戶購屋選擇行為分析模式，以作為試圖改進Logit模型在家戶住宅個體選擇行為研究中對於模糊性與不確定性問題的處理。本研究首度嘗試藉由傳統不連續選擇理論中的Logit模型結合模糊決策理論中改良後的模糊語意尺度法(Fuzzy Linguistic Scale, FLS)來推估家戶住宅選擇之機率，以建構「在模糊語意下的Logit模型(Fuzzy Linguistic Logit Model, FLLM)」。
　　在實證分析方面，本研究以家戶購屋區位與類型選擇行為之影響效果為例，藉由相關文獻回顧及購屋決策選擇行為理論，選取衡量家戶購屋決策區位及類型選擇行為之適當指標，並設計傳統李克特尺度法與模糊語意尺度法之問卷。將傳統李克特尺度及模糊語意尺度兩種問卷調查資料的結果，分別透過相關分析、因素分析與信度分析萃取重要的原始與模糊購屋決策選擇屬性變數，以建立各屬性變數的模糊權重，進而建構家戶購屋決策區位及類型選擇的模糊效用函數。然後，分別應用不連續選擇理論於家戶購屋決策區位及類型選擇之二項、多項及巢式Logit模型，及結合不連續選擇理論以及模糊集合論後的家戶購屋決策區位及類型選擇之在模糊語意下的二項、多項及巢式Logit模型之三類不同的參數校估模式，建立家戶購屋決策區位及類型選擇行為的理論分析架構。最後，將原始與在模糊語意下的二項、多項及巢式Logit修正模型的估計結果分別進行模型驗證與比較，以驗證本研究所建立的三種模糊整合模型是否較佳。實證資料選自於1998年初至1999年底台南都市地區的購屋家戶住宅調查。
　　本研究的實證結果可分為兩個部分來探討。第一、在不同方法論的比較方面：首先，由實證分析結果證實，本研究所建立的家戶住宅區位與類型選擇個體行為分析模型。在加入模糊語意後，除了住宅類型二項選擇模型外，無論在模型的配適能力、預測成功率、期望需求彈性與概似比統計量檢定等相關統計與經濟指標的意義上，在模糊語意下多項選擇與巢式選擇之Logit模型皆較傳統多項選擇與巢式選擇之Logit個體模型為佳。其次，本研究經由實證分析結果發現，在模糊語意下的Logit模型在理論與實務應用上能適用於透天或是集合住宅家戶進行住宅區位多項選擇與住宅類型巢式選擇之情況; 其中由於包容值係數值介於0與1之間，顯示其他Logit模型的估計值都會有誤差，故本研究乃用巢式Logit模型來改善其他Logit模型的問題(例如多項Logit模型IIA的問題)。最後，經由本研究實證結果證實，在傳統Logit模型加入模糊語意後，將可以解決傳統住宅選擇個體計量經濟模型中具模糊性與不確定性的解釋變數處理的問題，並可作為協助具質化資料與量化分析方法整合的重要參考。
　　第二、在實證分析的成果方面：首先，在模糊語意尺度型態尺度之差異比較方面，經由本研究實證分析後發現，某些型態語意措辭的三角模糊數存在多個重疊(overlapping)的現象，在提高認同程度衡量函數進行解模糊化後，雖可明顯改善模糊數圖形重疊的效果，但因樣本數大幅減少而無法反映實際調查樣本的行為現象。因此其顯示的意義代表選項愈多受訪者愈難加以評價的現象，充分表現人類進行評價時的心理認知是模糊的特性。此外，各型態模糊數的定義範圍皆不同，可解決傳統問卷假設任何兩種尺度間的差距都是相等的衡量誤差，而且透天及集合住宅家戶無論對於購屋評估準則之購屋前重視度或購屋後滿意度均大都傾向較為負面的看法。其次，在實證模型解釋變數的合理性方面，「家戶可支配所得」與「住宅面積」兩變數的係數均呈現相當顯著性，顯示「家戶可支配所得」或「住宅面積」愈高，家戶選擇住宅的效用愈大。「良好學區滿意度」變數除了集合住宅五方案模型外，均為家戶進行住宅區位選擇的具顯著影響變數。顯示上述具顯著性的三個變數均與相關研究結果一致。最後，在透天與集合住宅家戶的期望需求彈性推估結果方面，無論是家戶進行住宅區位與住宅類型個體選擇時，在模糊語意下的Logit模型校估結果所推估的彈性值變化的幅度較傳統Logit個體模型校估結果所推估的彈性值變化的幅度為小，顯示其集中程度已提高。

　　A household''s decision for housing choice is always a critical issue. During households'' housing choice behavior, it includes a very complex and uncertain process. It is very difficult to get certain information on households'' housing choice behavior. Understanding the household''s preference and establishing the evaluating criteria would help the government to formulate housing policies and the housing developers to provide housing products. The major topic of this study will be focused on the comparison of different methodologies. The main purpose of this study is to purpose a new micro-choice behavior model in household purchase and to depict the reality of human subjective perception behavior. We hope to improve the Logit model in dealing with many uncertain and fuzzy situations about housing choice behavior in household purchase. A new Fuzzy Linguistic Logit Model (FLLM) is proposed in this study to estate the probability of housing choice according to the Logit models of discrete choice theory combined with the well-developed Fuzzy Linguistic Scale (FLS) approach.
　　In empirical analysis, this study will give instances for the effects of housing location and type choice behavior in household purchase. The choice indexes will be measured to a household''s decision for housing location and type choice behavior by means of related literature reviews. This study will also design two questionnaires for both Likert scale and FLS in order to extract the weights of both certain and fuzzy attribute variables and to construct fuzzy utility function by using correlation analysis, factor analysis and reliability analysis. A new FLLM is established by applying the binary, multinomial and nested choice Logit models as well as FLS for location and type choice in household purchase. Then this study will verify and compare whether the empirical results of those three FLLMs are better or not. We selected data from a housing survey in Tainan city of the southern Taiwan for the empirical case study from the beginning of 1998 to the end of 1999.
　　The research results show the following two parts. First, in the comparison of different methodologies: the first finding of this study is that after comparing the different models, in addition to binary choice models, the goodness-of-fit, success rate of forecasting, expected demand elasticity and likelihood statistic test in FLLM are all better than those in Logit model, especially in the nested fuzzy Logit model (FNMNL). The second finding of this study is that the new model is proposed to be more capable of dealing with the problem of qualitative variables, which is one of the critical issues in quantitative approaches. Second, in the empirical results: the first finding of this study is that in the different comparison of FLS, triangular fuzzy numbers of some linguistic types have several overlapping situations. Although above situations are significantly improved after raising the numerical value of Identity Degree Measure Function (IDMF) to process the defuzzification, this result cannot reflect the real human behavior due to the samples decreased substantially. The implication of this result verifies that the human subjective perception has the fuzzy characteristics. In addition, the definitions of various types of fuzzy number are different and unsymmetrical. For the households of single and multiple housing, the opinions of ordinary people for relatively negative linguistic terms show greater differences, whereas those for more positive linguistic terms are usually more similar. The second finding of this study is that the household disposable income and housing space are very significant. Except for five alternatives of the households of multiple housing, the degree of satisfaction for neighborhood zone is very significant. Finally, in the estimation results of expected demand elasticity, the change scope of elasticity value for FLLM is less than that of Logit model. It indicates that the degree of concentration has been increased.

第一章　緒論…………………………………………………………1
　　第一節　研究緣起與目的………………………………………1
　　第二節　研究對象與範圍………………………………………3
　　第三節　研究架構與方法………………………………………5
　　第四節　研究內容與流程………………………………………6
第二章　文獻回顧……………………………………………………8
　　第一節　住宅選擇行為理論……………………………………8
　　第二節　不連續選擇行為理論…………………………………20
　　第三節　模糊決策理論…………………………………………22
第三章　理論模式建構………………………………………………26
　　第一節　家戶購屋選擇行為要因之萃取………………………26
　　第二節　選擇行為模式之建構…………………………………27
　　第三節　模式建構之過程與應用………………………………28
第四章　實證資料分析與模糊語意尺度型態之差異比較…………43
　　第一節　抽樣問卷設計…………………………………………43
　　第二節　資料處理分析…………………………………………50
　　第三節　樣本結構分析…………………………………………52
　　第四節　原始與模糊語意因素分析……………………………55
　　第五節　模糊語意尺度型態之差異比較………………………57
第五章　透天住宅家戶購屋區位選擇之實證分析…………………62
　　第一節　替選方案指定與變數定義說明………………………62
　　第二節　不相干替選方案獨立性之問題………………………66
　　第三節　住宅區位選擇三方案GMNL與FMNL模型之比較分析…67
　　第四節　住宅區位選擇五方案GMNL與FMNL模型之比較分析…72
　　第五節　住宅區位選擇七方案GMNL與FMNL模型之比較分析…76
　　第六節　不同替選方案模型之比較分析………………………79
　　第七節　討論……………………………………………………81
第六章　集合住宅家戶購屋區位選擇之實證分析…………………83
　　第一節　替選方案指定與變數定義說明………………………83
　　第二節　住宅區位選擇四方案GMNL與FMNL模型之比較分析…86
　　第三節　住宅區位選擇五方案GMNL與FMNL模型之比較分析…91
　　第四節　不同替選方案模型之比較分析………………………95
　　第五節　討論……………………………………………………97
第七章　家戶購屋型態選擇之實證分析……………………………99
　　第一節　家戶住宅類型二項選擇Logit模型
　　　　　　與模糊語意二項選擇Logit模型之比較分析……… 99
　　第二節　透天與集合住宅型態選擇兩巢層MNL與FNMNL模型之比較分析…105
　　第三節　不同替選方案模型之比較分析………………………117
　　第四節　討論……………………………………………………119
第八章　結論與後續研究……………………………………………121
　　第一節　結論……………………………………………………121
　　第二節　研究限制………………………………………………126
　　第三節　後續研究………………………………………………127
參考文獻………………………………………………………………136
附錄一…………………………………………………………………148
附錄二…………………………………………………………………151
附錄三…………………………………………………………………158

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（三）日文部分
1.小川圭一(1999)，「使用模糊積分型效用函數之路徑選擇行為模型」，日本模糊會誌，第11卷第4期，第690至694頁。