越南在加入世界貿易組織後，獲得許多來自全球經濟整合的好處，但也面臨許多挑戰。其中，尤以銀行業發展非常迅速。因此，投資人一直以來非常關注銀行業的股價變動。本研究使用本益比模型、股價銷售比模型、 市價帳面價值比模型及現金流量折現模型，來預測亞洲商業銀行的股價。研究結果顯示，四個模型中，市價帳面價值比模型最能預測股價，本益比模型、股價銷售比模型及現金流量折現模型則較無法預測實際股價。

After six years joining the world trade organization (WTO), Vietnam has enjoyed a lot of merits from its economic global integration; However it also faced with many challenges. In line with the broader achievement, banking sector regime has evolved quickly. The stock price of banking sector has always been an important issue for investors. This study uses four models as price-earnings ratio model, price-sales ratio model, market - to - book ratio model, and discounted cash flow model to present valuation of stocks in vietnamese banking industry: a case study for Asia Commercial Bank. The empirical results reveal the valuation based on price-earnings ratio model, price-sales ratio model and discount cash flow model are unreasonable. And the expected share price in the market - to - book ratio model is the most reasonable.

中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III
TABLE OF CONTENTS IV
LIST OF FIGURES VI
LIST OF TABLES VII
I THE MOTIVATION 1
II LITERATURE REVIEW 4
III THE INTRODUCTION OF ASIA COMMERCIAL BANK 8
IV FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS 12
4.1 The Financial Statements 12
4.1.1Bank Balance Sheet 12
4.1.2 The Income Statement 13
4.2 Financial Statement Analysis and Comparisons with its Competitors 15
4.2.1 Financial Highlights 15
4.2.2 Intra Company Comparision in 5 Years: 2008-2012 17
4.2.3 Comparisions to its Competitors 19
V VALUATION MODELS 29
5.1 Price-earnings Ratio Model 29
5.2 Price-sales Ratio Model 35
5.3 Market /Book Ratio Model 39
5.4 Discounted Cash Flow Model 43
VI CONCLUSION 57
APPENDIX 62
REFERENCES 67
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 ACB Stock Price ........................................................................................... 3
Figure 2 Revenue &; Profit ......................................................................................... 15
Figure 3 Gross Margin ............................................................................................... 16
Figure 4 Curent Ratio ................................................................................................. 20
Figure 5 Operating Profit Margin .............................................................................. 22
Figure 6 Pretax Profit Margin .................................................................................... 23
Figure 7 Net Profit Margin ........................................................................................ 25
Figure 8 Return on Asset after Tax ............................................................................ 26
Figure 9 Return on Equity .......................................................................................... 28
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 The Consolidated Income Statement from 2008 to 2012 ............................. 14
Table 2 Intra Company Comparision in 5 Years from 2008 to 2012 ........................ 18
Table 3 The Result of The Average of P/E ................................................................ 30
Table 4 Revenue Growth Rate and Profit Margin on Sales from 2008 - 2012 ......... 31
Table 5 The Expected Reasonable Share Price in 2013 ............................................ 34
Table 6 The Average Price-Sales Ratio in 2012 ....................................................... 36
Table 7 The Growth Rate from 2008 - 2012 ............................................................. 37
Table 8 The Expected Reasonable Share Price in 2013 ............................................ 38
Table 9 The Average Market/Book Ratio in 2012 .................................................... 40
Table 10 The Book Value Growth Rate from 2008 - 2012 ....................................... 41
Table 11 The Expected Reasonable Share Price in 2013 .......................................... 42
Table 12 NOPLAT from 2008-2012 ......................................................................... 44
Table 13 NOPLAT (2013-2017) ................................................................................ 51
Table 14 WACC (2008-2012) ................................................................................... 53
Table 15 Discount Free Cash flow............................................................................. 55
Table A1 The Changes in The Number of Banks before and after Joining The WTO...........................................................................................................................62
Table A2 The Consolidated Balance Sheet from 2008 to 2012.................................65

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