本研究探討台灣與南韓從1997年第一季至2009年第三季匯率變動對出口之影響。在凱因斯理論中，貨幣貶值對出口有利，對進口不利。利用單根檢定及共整合檢定加以分析，實證結果發現長期而言新台幣貶值對出口有利，而短期無顯著效果。南韓長期實證結果發現韓圜匯率與出口有正面影響。而短期則與落後3期(季)的匯率有負面影響。因此從台灣與南韓實證發現貨幣貶值在長期下才符合凱因斯理論。研究結果顯示台灣短期新台幣貶值對出口無顯著效果，所以台灣要在短期間利用匯率上升來提振我國出口競爭力，效果將相當有限，因此利用貨幣貶值來救出口並不是萬靈藥，台灣應該要儘速調整產業結構，並進行技術升級，才能強化實質競爭力。

This study from Taiwan and South Korea in the first quarter 1997 to third quarter 2009, the effect of exchange rate movements on exports. In Keynesian theory, currency devaluation on exports, good for importing negative. Using unit root test and cointegration test to analyze empirical results in the long term benefit of NT depreciation on exports, but no significant short-term effect. South Korea won a long-term empirical results show that the exchange rate and exports have a positive impact. And backward short-term is 3 quarter of the exchange rate have a negative impact. Therefore, empirical evidence from Taiwan and South Korea only under the currency depreciation in the long line with Keynesian theory. Short-term results show that Taiwan NT dollar depreciation, no significant effect on exports, so Taiwan should use the exchange rate to weaken the currency in a short period to boost the competitiveness of Chinese exports, the effect will be very limited, so use of currency depreciation to rescue the exports are not a panacea Taiwan''s industrial structure should be adjusted as soon as possible and carry out technical upgrading in order to strengthen competitiveness in real terms.

第一章緒論................................................1
第一節前言................................................1
第二節研究動機............................................2
第三節研究目的............................................4
第四節研究架構............................................6
第二章文獻回顧............................................8
第三章台灣與南韓貿易政策與匯率制度.......................13
第一節台灣之貿易政策與匯率制度...........................13
第二節南韓之貿易政策與匯率制度...........................36
第三節 台灣和南韓之總體數據分析..........................41
第四節 台灣和南韓全球金融風暴後之出口變化................45
第四章實證模型方法與實證結果分析.........................48
第一節模型方法與相關統計檢定.............................48
第二節資料來源...........................................55
第三節實證結果分析.......................................57
第四節實證結果與發現.....................................72
第五章結論與建議.........................................74
參考文獻.................................................76
附錄一 AIC準則的排名和模型(台灣) ........................78
附錄二 AIC準則的排名和模型(南韓) ........................78
附錄三 台灣與南韓出口貿易比較............................79
附錄四 台灣主要出口地區及結構 ...........................79
附錄五 南韓主要出口地區及結構 ...........................80
表目錄
表3-1台灣出口貿易結構表....................................................................................................24
表3-2台灣進口貿易結構表....................................................................................................25
表3-3東亞主要國家貿易依存度............................................................................................28
表3-4台灣主要出口產品及結構表........................................................................................45
表3-5南韓主要出口產品及結構表........................................................................................47
表4-1台灣模型-研究變數資料來源說明表...........................................................................56表4-2南韓模型-研究變數資料來源說明表...........................................................................56表4-3台灣數據資料之單根檢定. ..........................................................................................58
表4-4南韓數據資料之單根檢定. ..........................................................................................59
表4-5台灣資料落後期數的選取表...............................................................................61
表4-6南韓資料落後期數的選取表...............................................................................61
表4-7 Johansen之VECM類型與EViews軟體分類表...................................................62
表4-8軌跡檢定的結果(台灣) ........................................................................................63
表4-9最大特性根檢定的結果(台灣) ..........................................................................63
表4-10軌跡檢定的結果(南韓) ......................................................................................64
表4-11最大特性根檢定的結果(南韓) ........................................................................65
表4-12台灣標準化之共整合係數.................................................................................66
表4-13南韓標準化之共整合係數.................................................................................66
表4-14台灣變數間之短期關係......................................................................................68
表4-15南韓變數間之短期關係......................................................................................70
圖目錄
圖1-1研究流程圖.....................................................................................................................6
圖3-1台灣和南韓帄均每人國內生產毛額............................................................................41
圖3-2台灣和南韓匯率變動圖................................................................................................42
圖3-3台灣出口貿易圖............................................................................................................43
圖3-4南韓出口貿易圖............................................................................................................44
圖4-1實證流程圖....................................................................................................................57

一、 中文部分
1.中華經濟研究院(2009)。2008年東亞貿易對經濟之影響分析。臺北:同作者。
2.方文碩、張倉耀、賴奕豪(2007)。實質匯率變動與出口收益：亞洲證據。經濟與管理論叢，3(1)，67-96。
3.王泓仁(2005)。台幣匯率對我國經濟金融活動之影響。中央銀行季刊。27(1)，13-45。
4.徐千婷(2006)。匯率與總體經濟變數之關係:台灣實證分析。中央銀行季刊，28(4)，13-42。
5.財團法人國家政策研究基金會(2002)。金融發展在經濟成長中的角色-台灣與韓國的實證研究。臺北:同作者。
6.財團法人國家政策研究基金會(2009)。南韓、新加坡拓展新興市場因應策略。臺北:同作者。
7.陳美玲、王凱立、吳家豪(2004)。台灣對外直接投資、出口及匯率動態關聯之研究：多變量時間序列模型之應用。農業經濟半年刊，76，139-172。
8.彭淮南(2005)。新台幣匯率持續升值，對產業之生存與發展造成衝擊，應如何因應。中央銀行季刊，27(1)，1-8。
9.黃台心(2002)。出口與經濟成長的因果關係:台灣的實證研究。經濟論文叢刊，30(4)，465-490。

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