臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

恆常所得假說認為消費者依終生期望所得來做消費規劃，不受短暫性所得變動而改變消費。然實際資料顯示：在景氣循環過程中，暫時性所得變動確會影響消費變動，顯示該假說實際上不成立。本文利用華人家庭動態資料庫，配合追蹤性資料的計量方法來進行檢測該假說。實證結果發現：消費行為違反恆常所得假說。接著加入景氣變換來解釋消費違反恆常所得假說導因於流動性限制。最後利用追蹤性資料的特性，從世代差異的角度看消費者違反恆常所得假說，發現不同世代受流動性限制的影響效果不同，隨著年齡增加，消費者違反恆常所得假說的情況愈弱。

Permanent income hypothesis(PIH) states that consumers make choices regarding their longer-term income expectations. Transitory income variety could not affect consumption. However, the reality is that consumption would be affected by transitory income during economic fluctuation, and this fact violates the hypothesis. Due to this reason, this paper use Taiwanese panel data : PSFD(Panel Study of Family Dynamics) and econometric model to test the hypothesis. In the empirical results, we concluded: Taiwanese consumption violated PIH. Then generation difference was incorporated into the model to explain the degree of violation of PIH. And the result explained that the generation difference exists in the degree of PIH’s violation.

1. 緒論 . . . . . . 1
2. 理論架構 . . . . . 6
3. 資料選取和計量方法 . . 10
3.1 資料選取 . . . 10
3.2 計量方法 . . . 11
4. 實證結果 . . . . . 14
5. 結論 . . . . . .25

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