過度專注於經濟成長的都市，通常會產生：人口持續成長、交通壅塞、都市蔓延，及環境品質低落等等問題與現象。因此，欲成為永續都市，政府當局必須面對和管理這些複雜、動態的都市環境問題。然而，在環境決策的過程中，高階管理者面臨的最大挑戰是具備連鎖回饋、動態複雜和累積延滯等特質的環境污染問題。其牽涉的部門和領域廣及社會、經濟與環境等多方面，故學習如何以整體觀、跨部門合作的系統思考方式，處理都市的環境污染等環境管理問題，已經成為國際間都市追求永續發展的必然趨勢。

然而，面對都市複雜變化的環境問題，如何在多部門的不同政策當中確定整體目標，釐清問題發生原委，觀察各部門政策行動的交互作用，並且瞭解都市環境問題未來的發展趨勢，以制定永續環境政策來確保都市的永續發展；這些都是都市高階管理者學習制定永續環境政策過程中重要的議題。本研究發現系統動態學方法論(System Dynamics)具備以整體觀整合動態、複雜的環境管理問題，各部門政策的衝突及模擬政策長期績效的特質，可以協助高階管理者在環境決策的過程，制定永續環境政策，並且提高環境決策信心和品質。

據此，本研究藉由臺北市空氣污染防治政策分析之環境管理案例，利用系統動態學方法論的整體觀系統思考模式，協助從臺北市運輸活動和都市發展的複雜、動態關係來建立系統結構，進行空氣污染問題之因果質性分析，以確認臺北市空氣污染之問題根源。並且，利用系統動態量化模式之長期動態模擬功能，從實施綠覆率、土地總量管制、及大眾運輸系統等不同領域之永續發展政策，探討其長期發展對於臺北市空氣污染防治的效果，以說明過去在都市空氣污染防治政策中較少提及的土地總量管制政策，對於都市空氣污染問題的防治效果，確實優於以往較受到重視的實施綠覆率和大眾運輸系統政策。最後，本研究再據臺北市空氣污染防治政策分析之環境管理案例之研究結果，進一步討論系統動態學在輔助環境管理與高階決策過程的優勢與顯著貢獻。

Cities focus on economic growth often produces rapid population growth, traffic congestion, city sprawl, and environmental degradation. The aim to be sustainable cities, governments must face and manage the complex and dynamic urban environmental problems. When developing an environmental policy, the characteristics of chain feedback, dynamic complexity, and cumulative delay on environmental problems that concern society, economy and environment are great challenges to urban top managers. Therefore, learning how to deal urban environmental problems applies multi-departments cooperation way and system thinking with holistic view for assistance has increasingly becoming an international tendency for urban sustainable development.

Urban top managers must learn how to integrate the general aim, clarify reasons of environmental problems, observe the interactive results of multi-departments policies, and realize the future tendency of urban environmental problems, which are very important subjects of developing a sustainable environmental policy. This investigation discovers System Dynamics has holistic view and particular characteristics to integrate the environmental management problems of great complexity and conflicts within interrelated departments, and the ability to simulate long-term results of policies; which can support top managers to learn how to make appropriate environmental policies for urban sustainable development, and have confidences and promote policy quality to their long-term environmental decisions.

Accordingly, this investigation examines alternative sustainable development policies for air purification in Taipei, a high density city. The system dynamics approach is employed to analyze the causal relationships of air pollution problem primarily resulting from transportation and relating to the complex structure of urban development. Simulating and comparing the air purification effects of planting urban developed land, developable land quotas, and public transit investment policies in Taipei, Taiwan, demonstrates that the developable land quotas policy which previous was paid less attention appears possibly superior to the planting urban developed land and public transit investment policies, which previously were more popular for air purification policy. Finally, this investigation bases on the case study results of air purification in Taipei to discuss and demonstrate the advantages and significant contributions of the SD approach with holistic thinking for supporting urban top decisions of environmental management to develop the long-term sustainable environmental policy.

中文摘要
Abstract
誌　謝　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
目 錄 I
圖目錄 i
表目錄 iii
第一章　緒　論
1.1 研究動機與背景...............................................................................................1- 1
1.2 研究目的...........................................................................................................1- 2
1.3 案例範疇與污染源選擇…...............................................................................1- 3
1.4 研究流程...........................................................................................................1- 4
1.5 研究方法...........................................................................................................1- 6
1.6 論文架構...........................................................................................................1- 8
1.7 研究貢獻...........................................................................................................1-10

第二章　都市環境永續管理理論與研究方法文獻回顧
2.1 都市環境永續管理理念……….......................................................................2- 1
2.1.1 永續發展理念宗旨與演進.......................................................................2- 1
2.1.2 都市永續發展環境管理意涵...................................................................2- 3
2.1.3 環境永續管理行動原則...........................................................................2- 3
2.2 都市環境永續管理願景……………...............................................................2- 4
2.2.1 擁有生態綠地系統願景...........................................................................2- 5
2.2.2 環境永續管理願景...................................................................................2- 5
2.2.3 都市發展規模適度願景...........................................................................2- 6
2.2.4 推行大眾運輸系統願景……...................................................................2- 6
2.2.5 共同建立永續都市願景…………...........................................................2- 7
2.3 系統動態學方法論發展沿革、重要學理與特徵...........................................2- 7
2.3.1 系統動態學發展沿革...............................................................................2- 7
2.3.2 基礎學說與重要理論...............................................................................2- 8
2.3.3 系統動態學的定義...................................................................................2-13
2.4 系統動態模式建構原則...................................................................................2-14
2.4.1 建構模式目的...........................................................................................2-14
2.4.2 模式範圍與邊界界定...............................................................................2-14
2.4.3 資訊回饋系統...........................................................................................2-15
2.4.4 模式的變數處理.......................................................................................2-15
2.4.5 模式結構...................................................................................................2-16
2.4.6 因果回饋環路...........................................................................................2-18
2.4.7 決策系統...................................................................................................2-19
2.5 方法論基本信念、特質與未來發展趨勢.......................................................2-20
2.5.1 系統動態學的基本信念...........................................................................2-20
2.5.2 方法論優勢特質.......................................................................................2-20
2.5.3 輔助環境規劃與管理研究發展趨勢.......................................................2-22
註釋..................................................................2-29

第三章　整體觀環境管理理論架構
3.1 都市永續發展與環境變遷問題系統結構之特徵...........................................3- 1
3.1.1 環境系統行為之一般特徵.......................................................................3- 1
3.1.2 都市永續發展環境管理之障礙特徵.......................................................3- 3
3.1.3 環境決策之限制特徵...............................................................................3- 4
3.2 環境管理高階決策重視之問題層面...............................................................3- 7
3.3 環境決策之系統思考階層觀...........................................................................3- 8

第四章　實例研究：臺北市空氣污染防治政策之系統動態模式
4.1 臺北市都市發展背景.......................................................................................4- 1
4.2 建構模型：改善空氣污染問題政策發展質性和量化模式...........................4- 2
4.2.1 都市發展空氣污染問題之質性因果模式...............................................4- 2
4.2.2 都市土地開發與活動人口成長累積之非線性關係...............................4- 5
4.2.3 都市機動車活動數量與活動人口成長累積之非線性關係...................4- 7
4.2.4 都市機動車活動數量與空氣污染量之累積...........................................4- 7
4.2.5 空氣污染程度影響都市人口數量變化之關係.......................................4- 8
4.2.6 關於「都市已開發建築土地」、「都市綠覆蓋土地」與『綠化都市已開發建築土地』三項變數的流量關係處理...................................................4- 8
4.3 政策發展...........................................................................................................4- 9
4.3.1 綠覆率政策發展之因果環路(政策一)....................................................4- 9
4.3.2 土地總量管制政策發展之因果環路(政策二)........................................4-11
4.3.3 大眾運輸系統政策發展之因果環路(政策三)........................................4-12
註釋.................................................................4-15

第五章 臺北市空氣污染防治系統動態發展模擬分析
5.1 臺北市1970-2005年歷史發展與未來至2070年現況情境系統組成之動態發展……………………………………………………………………………...5- 1
5.1.1 臺北市發展影響土地開發與活動人口變動情勢...................................5- 1
5.1.2 臺北市綠覆蓋土地消長影響淨化空氣能力變動情勢...........................5- 3
5.1.3 臺北市污染氣體累積量變動情勢...........................................................5- 3
5.2 臺北市未來至2070年實施空氣污染防治政策系統組成之動態發展.........5- 5
5.2.1 臺北市綠覆蓋土地淨化空氣能力變動情勢….......................................5- 5
5.2.2 臺北市空氣品質變動情勢……...............................................................5- 7
5.2.3 臺北市發展影響各型態活動人口變動情勢….......................................5-13
5.3 政策分析...........................................................................................................5-16
5.3.1 綠覆率政策...............................................................................................5-16
5.3.2 土地總量管制政策...................................................................................5-16
5.3.3 大眾運輸系統政策...................................................................................5-17
5.4 模式效度……………………………………………………………………...5-19
5.4.1 模式目的………………………………………………………………...5-19
5.4.2 結構行為………………………………………………………………...5-20
5.4.3 參數確認………………………………………………………………...5-20
5.4.4 模式靈敏度……………………………………………………………...5-20
5.4.5 建模步驟………………………………………………………………...5-21
5.4.6 量化模式之質量平衡…………………………………………………...5-21
5.4.7 反直覺行為……………………………………………………………...5-22
5.4.8 模式校度與信度之再驗證……………………………………………...5-22
註釋..............5-23

第六章　討論　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
6-1 模式發展與建構……………………………………………………………....6- 1
6-1-1 研究模式和研究目的……………………………………………………6- 1
6-1-2 污染源選擇………………………………………………………………6- 2
6-1-3 模式變數之選擇與整合…………………………………………………6- 3
6-1-4 模式未來趨勢之函數參數設定…………………………………………6- 4
6-1-5 都市土地和綠覆蓋面積限制之考量……………………………………6- 5
6-1-6 機動車新引擎技術提昇對於模擬結果和模式設計之影響……………6- 6
6-2 系統動態學方法論輔助決策特質和研究限制………………………………6- 7
6-2-1 系統動態模式之一般化能力……………………………………………6- 7
6-2-2 著重長期政策之未來趨勢發展，不擅長短期政策之精確模擬………6- 8
6-2-3 質性模式轉化成量化模式之變數名稱關係絕非一對一………………6- 8
6-3 環境管理政策發展之未來趨勢………………………………………………6- 9
6-3-1 政府需要一個新的跨領域討論平台……………………………………6- 9
6-3-2 環境政策需要長期動態模擬工具輔助分析…………………………...6-10
6-3-3 進階認識永續發展與環境承載力變動關係之必要性………………...6-11
註釋....................................................................6-11

第七章　結論與建議
7.1 結論…………………………………………………………………………....7- 1
7.2 施政檢討與建議………………………………………………………………7- 4
7.3 未來研究方向建議……………………………………………………………7- 8

參考文獻 參-1
附錄
附錄一、系統動態模式符號說明………………………1
附錄二、本研究系統動態量化模擬全模式………………3
附錄三、本研究系統動態量化模擬全模式之數學方程式………....4
簡歷

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