早期相關研究對於家戶住宅權屬選擇決策之探討，多由靜態的觀點以不連續選擇之二項logit模型為進行分析，忽略住宅決策需經家戶長時間考量之動態特性。本研究由動態的觀點出發，應用危險模型分析家戶首次購屋之影響因素，並著重分析生命歷程重大事件對於首次購置住宅之影響效果。本論文實證資料為華人家庭動態資料庫。研究結果顯示個人所得與原生家庭社會經濟地位越高越高者，購置住宅之機率越高；結婚決策對於購置住宅有顯著之正面影響，離婚事件具負面影響效果，而生育第二個小孩之影響效果則不顯著。其次，本研究考量台灣地區住宅權屬多事件決策之特性。研究結果發現結婚年齡愈年輕者，回原生家庭之機率愈高，購置住宅之機率愈低；而結婚當時家戶恆常所得越低者，亦呈現相同之影響效果。此外，由於生命歷程重大事件與購置住宅之決策，對家戶而言可能是共同決定的，其中又以結婚決策之影響最為明顯。因此本研究考量結婚決策對住宅決策之內生性影響效果。研究結果發現兩決策不可觀察項之相關係數值顯著大於零，顯示結婚決策對於住宅決策具有正向之內生性影響關係。亦即潛在結婚機率較高者，其潛在購置住宅之機率亦較高。

Previous literatures generally analyzed the housing decision of household in terms of static state by applying discrete choice model, regardless of the time-consuming decision-making process of housing. We analyze the decision of first-time house buying in terms of dynamic state by applying hazard model, and focus on the effect of life course events. Our empirical data is retrieved from Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) surveyed in Taiwan. We classify the factors that affect the housing decisions into three categories, including life course events, housing market conditions and household social-economic characteristics. Our empirical results show household incomes and social status of parents have a positive effect on housing buying. We also found marriage has a positive effect on house buying, and union dissolution has a negative effect. In addition, accounting for the other housing choice, we found the marital age affect the decision of returning to the parental home significantly and households with higher income would have lower probability of returning home. Furthermore, in Chinese society, the decision of first-time house buying is closely connected with life course events, especially with marriage. It indicates the decision of getting merried would affect house buying endogenously. We constructed the bivariate proportional hazard model to deal with the endogeneity between the two decisions. Our results show the correlation coefficient between unobserved variables is greater than zero. It indicates marriage decision would potential effect the decision of house buying.

章 節 目 錄
第一章 緒論 ...1
第一節 前言 ...1
第二節 研究目的 ...5
第三節 資料來源 ...6
第四節 研究方法 ...7
第五節 研究內容說明 ...8
第六節 論文架構 ...9

第二章 相關文獻回顧 ..11
第一節 購置住宅之影響因素 ...11
第二節 生命歷程重大事件與首次購置住宅之關係 ...16
第三節 結婚決策之影響因素 ...20
第四節 首次購置住宅決策之分析方法 ...26
第五節 內生性之影響效果 ...28

第三章 研究方法 ...33
第一節 比例危險模型 ...34
第二節 競爭危險模型 ...35
第三節 混合比例危險模型 ...36
第四節 雙變量混合比例危險模型 ...38
第五節 多變量混合比例危險模型 ...41

第四章 首次購置住宅影響因素之分析 ...43
第一節 擁屋意義於男性與女性之差異 ...44
第二節 首次購屋之Cox比例危險模型建構 ...45
第三節 基本資料分析與變數選取 ...46
第四節 實證分析 ...54
第五節 小結 ...56
第五章 不同世代間首次購置住宅影響因素之比較分析 ...58
第一節 模式建構與樣本基本資料分析 ...60
第二節 變數選取與設定 ...63
第三節 實證分析 ...64
第四節 小結 ...67

第六章 首次購屋之多事件決策模式—租屋家戶租擁之決策 ...68
第一節 已婚租屋家戶之住宅租擁決策 ...69
第二節 多事件競爭風險模型之建構 ...70
第三節 基本資料分析與變數選取 ...72
第四節 實證分析 ...76
第五節 小結 ...79


第七章 首次購屋與生命歷程重大事件決策之內生性分析
—以結婚決策為例 ...80
第一節 家戶生命週期與住宅生涯之關係 ...83
第二節 男性結婚決策之影響因素 ...85
第三節 雙變量混合比例危險模式之建構 ...86
第四節 基本資料說明 ...88
第五節 實證分析 ...90
第六節 小結 ...95

第八章 結論與建議 ...96
第一節 結論 ...96
第二節 後續研究建議 ...99

參考文獻 ...101

圖 目 錄
圖1-1 家戶住宅決策過程圖 ...5
圖1-2 研究架構圖 ...10
圖4-1 男性生命歷程重大事件時間點 ...49
圖4-2 女性生命歷程重大事件時間點 ...49
圖6-1 結婚與首次購屋機率關係圖 ...81


表 目 錄
表4-1 基本資料分析表 ...50
表4-2 是否有工作參數校估表：probit模型 ...53
表4-3 恆常所得參數校估表 ...53
表4-4 家戶首次購屋影響因素之參數校估表 ...56
表5-1 已婚家戶結婚當時之居住狀況與住宅生涯首次購屋情形 ...58
表5-2 各世代已購屋家戶與未購屋家戶基本資料之統計 ...62
表5-3 不同世代之已婚租屋家戶首次購屋模型 ...66
表6-1 已婚租屋家戶購屋、回原生家庭與維持租屋狀態之統計表 ...74
表6-2 已婚租屋家戶回原生家庭居住或購置住宅之模型比較 ...78
表7-1 基本資料分析表 ...89
表7-2 男性購置住宅決策模型參數較估結果 ...91
表7-3 男性結婚決策模型參數較估結果 ...93
表7-4 不可觀察項變異數相關係數表 ...94

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