臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

世界性的體育賽事往往令人關注，當中又以奧林匹克運動會的規模最為龐大，因此在大型體育賽事的籌備階段往往投入巨資規劃，如此對於舉辦國與相關廠商必然產生影響。而其影響效果將會反映在該國的股票市場以及廠商的股價之上。

本篇論文應用自我迴歸模型(Autoregressive model, AR model)去預測奧運會的籌備過程當中，是否會對本研究所挑選之台灣的奧運會相關供應鏈廠商股價造成影響。研究分別選取2008年北京奧運會以及2012年倫敦敦奧運會主要相關廠商為分析對象，以日資料的型態檢驗廠商的股價日報酬率是否受奧運會舉辦因素的影響。而當中，刻劃是否受奧運會舉辦因素影響的解釋變數為該主辦國取得奧運會承辦權的天數變化。結果顯示，奧運會會對台灣供應鏈廠商的股價產生正向影響，但影響的程度與規模仍需視不同的奧運會所籌辦的規模、地理位置及當時的時空背景而定。例如2008年的北京奧運會對台灣供應鏈產業的影響即較2012年倫敦奧運會的影響深且廣，歸因於2008年北京奧運會的規模遠較歷屆盛大，且與台灣距離接近，因而奧運會的影響效果明顯。而2012年的倫敦奧運會，對台灣供應鏈廠商的影響層面與程度就不若北京奧運會顯著。

This thesis investigates whether stock returns of some Taiwanese companies are affected by big international sporting events, such as the quadrennial Olympic Games. Autoregressive regression models and daily data are employed to examine the impacts of 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2012 London Olympics on stock returns of Taiwan’s supply-chain industries. In addition to the necessary independent (control) variables, this study adopts a duration variable to explore when the Olympics effects would take place. The empirical results show that stock prices of different companies respond to the Olympics events positively but in distinct time spans. Furthermore, the magnitudes of the Olympics effects are affected by the event’s budgets and geographic distances between Taiwan and the host countries. Consequently, 2008 Beijing Olympics have greater impacts on stock returns of the supply-chain industries in Taiwan relative to 2012 London Olympics.

目 錄

第一章 緒論

第一節 研究動機.......... 1
第二節 研究目的.......... 3
第三節 研究範圍.......... 3
第四節 研究架構與說明..........5

第二章 文獻回顧

第一節 奧運會經營現況..........6
第二節 舉辦國際大型運動賽事分析..........14
第三節 奧運會與股票市場間之關聯性..........17
第四節 影響股價之總體經濟變數..........19

第三章 資料與實證模型

第一節 資料來源及研究期間..........23
第二節 實證模型.......... 23

第四章 實證結果分析

第一節 第29屆2008年北京奧運會..........28
第二節 第30屆2012年倫敦奧運會..........38

第五章 結論與建議..........46

參考文獻..........48

附錄..........51

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