教育出版是指與學習、教育及培訓有關的出版，這是一種產品最有模式化、標準化，而過程最複雜、計畫性最高的出版。由於其產業特性屬於計畫式生產，預測變數大，導致產生大量庫存，且每年庫存報廢高達上千萬元，由此可見良好的印量預測模型及存貨管理對於教育出版業是相當重要的；在產業供應鏈間資訊不對稱下，製造商並非獲取第一手的銷售資訊，在需求預測及存貨管理更是一大挑戰，透過合約設計促使經銷商願意提供真實資訊，提升整體供應鏈與製造商的獲利，亦利於印量預測模型與決策機制的最佳化。
本研究主要以國中升高中的輔助教材為研究對象，印量決策主要分成兩階段，第一階段為透過資料探勘技術建構教育出版業的輔助教材之印量預測模型；第二階段為分別以綜合訂購、隨機規劃及最小最大悔惜建構決策架構，希望透過良好的印量預測模型與決策機制(包含：印量決策點有初版印量、再版印量與時間點)，因應教育出版業現今高退貨率及必須對輔助教材滯銷的困境，找到最佳的利基點。合約設計主要利用篩選機制(Screening)獲取經銷商的資訊，透過合約設計篩選不同資訊的經銷商，以獲取經銷商資訊，進而提升整體供應鏈及製造商獲利。本研究提升預測能力3.7%、降低總成本8.3%、提升整體供應鏈0.5%以及製造商獲利比2.7%。

Educational publication is a kind of publishing which is related to learning, education and training. It’s the most module and standardize product, however the process of this product is the most complex and need to be highly planning. Due to feature of publishing industry which is making to stocks, the predicting variable of the printing volume is huge and also cause huge amount of inventory. Moreover, up to ten billions inventories were scrapped every year. Therefore, developing a good model of printing volume and managing inventory have significant effect of educational publication. Under conditions of asymmetric information, manufacturers cannot acquire the first-hand information, so demand forecasting and inventory management are big challenges for them. So if we can encourage retailers to provide factual information through contract design; profit abilities of overall supply chain and manufacturers may be enhanced and the optimization of prediction on print volume and decision mechanism may be achieved.

表目錄 xi
圖目錄 xiii
符號 xv
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 3
1.3研究架構 4
1.4論文架構與定位 5
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1出版業現況 7
2.2教育出版業現況 11
2.3個案公司背景 13
2.3.1個案公司簡介 13
2.3.2影響銷量因子 14
2.3.3產品履歷 15
2.4預測方法 17
2.5決策方法 21
2.5.1 傳統庫存管理 21
2.5.2 最小最大悔惜 23
2.5.3 隨機規劃 24
2.6 資訊不對稱 25
2.7 供應合約 27
2.8 文獻探討小結 28
第三章 印量決策 31
3.1初版預測模型 31
3.2再版決策模型 38
3.2.1決策模型建構：綜合訂購模組 39
3.2.2最小最大悔惜模組 42
3.2.3隨機規劃模組 43
第四章 印量決策實證分析 44
4.1初版預測模型 45
4.2再版決策模型 49
第五章 合約設計 56
5.1 模式建立 56
5.2問題與環境描述 57
5.3 假設與限制 58
第六章 合約設計實證分析 59
6.1單一合約分析 59
6.2 SCREENING CONTRACT設計 62
6.3現況分析 64
6.4 驗證 65
6.5 深度訪談 71
第七章 結論 75
7.1結論 75
7.2 未來研究 76
參考文獻 77
附錄A 現況合約分析 81
附錄B 深度訪談逐字稿 87

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