水資源一直被人類視為維持生命、經濟發展的重要資源。然而近年來的氣候變遷嚴重衝擊了水文循環，也加深了人類對水資源調配之困難度。然而加勒比海地區在許多關於氣候變遷報告之下指出，為一氣候變遷高度衝擊區域。聖文森及格瑞納丁(St.Vincent and the Grenadines, SVG)坐落於加勒比海，國氣候條件為熱帶海島型氣候，用水來源大宗為河川逕流。而對於一上游集水區來講，氣候變遷所造成之衝擊以及土地開發變遷都可能對下游水資源供應以至於整個國家造成影響。有鑑於此，本研究針對聖文森蒙特婁集水區(Montreal watershed)中，未來氣候變遷與土地利用轉變對於集水區出流量之影響，並針對此集水區之未來可能情況提出具有整合性與永續性之改善方案。
本研究選定之模式為TaiWAP (Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program to Climate Change)，模式中包含氣候變遷預設情境(Scenarios)、氣候變遷產生器(Weather Generator)、集水區流量模擬(GWLF水文模式)等，為一於評估資源用續利用與因應氣候變遷之調適能力之套裝軟體。在大氣環流模式(General Circulation Model, GCMs) 方面，本研究選定四個對於聖文森地區檢定值較高之模式(GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MPIM-ECHAM5, and UKMO-HadCM3)，而氣候情境則選擇A2(高發展)、A1B(中發展)與 B1(低發展)三種，分別模擬蒙特婁集水區2050年(2040年-2069年之平均值)與2080年(2070年-2099年之平均值)之集水區水文狀況。
而在於土地變遷方面，本研究假設都市用地擴張(Expansion of urban lands)、森林用地擴張(expansion of forest cover)、農業用地擴張(expansion of agricultural lands)三種情況，各種擴張情形為比原本土地利用情形增加15%，並與未改變土地利用之情況進行比較。本方面大氣環流模式從上述四種中選定兩種(GFDL-CM2.0 and MPIM-ECHAM5) 針對2050年進行模擬，並將結果轉換成乾季與溼季進行討論。
研究結果顯示，在氣溫方面個大氣環流模式中兩個時段都呈現上升趨勢，從+0.77度至+3.28度不等，雨量模擬在模式間則是呈現高度波動情形，從+46%至-75%不等，而在河川流量方面模式在兩時段皆呈現減少趨勢，從+39%至-99%不等。
在土地利用變遷方面，兩個大氣環流模式皆指出在乾濕季增加都市與農業用地會增加更多地表逕流，反之增加森林用地則會減少地表逕流。本研究針對未來河川流量與土地利用變遷所提供之模擬結果與建議可用於後續氣候變遷之重要參考與現今水資源評估規畫、集水區治理之依據，以面對未來氣候變遷之調適與因應。

Water serves as the fundamental link between the climate system, human society and the environment. Climate change is severely impacting the hydrological cycle and consequently, water management. This will in turn have significant effects on human development and security. St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), one of the many islands located in the Caribbean region is projected to be highly affected by climate change, its water resource being no exception. The island depends on streams to meet its daily water demand. Climate change coupled with land use changes within the watersheds can potentially have irreversible impacts on the main source of water for the communities St. Vincent. Owing to the fact that streams are the main water resources of this island and the impact of climate change and poor land use management, this project assesses the effects of climate and land use change on streamflow in the Montreal watershed. As an end result an integrated and sustainable management plan was proposed for the watershed.

Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Programme (TaiWAP) was the main tool used to assist with the simulations and probable projections for the impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow. It includes climate change scenarios, weather generator and a hydrological model, the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). Four Global Climate Models (GCMs) (GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MPIM-ECHAM5, and UKMO-HadCM3) were used under the SRES A2, A1B and B1. These scenarios were used to assess climate change for two periods 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099). For the assessment of the effects of probable land use changes on streamflow two GCMs (GFDL-CM2.0 and MPIM-ECHAM5) under the SRES A2, A1B and B1. Three different modifications were assumed in the watershed (Expansion of urban lands, expansion of forest cover and expansion of agricultural lands) and compared with the present land use practice. Each modification was assumed to have increased by 15% for the period 2050s. This was done for both the dry season and wet season.

The results projected for the effects of climate change on the streamflow indicate an increasing trend in annual temperature from both the 2050s and 2080s period which ranged from 0.77oC to 3.28oC. The projections for rainfall fluctuated within the different models. However a significant decrease in annual rainfall is expected for both periods was noted. The annual rainfall ranges from 46.09% to -74.8%. Annual stream flow is anticipated to decrease for both periods, ranging from 38.59% to -99.89%

The results projected for land use change on streamflow based on the different modifications for the different seasons of the year (dry and wet) showed a similar trend. The results projects the expansion of urban lands and agricultural land to have a higher percentage streamflow when compared with the present land use while the expansion of forest cover will project a lower percentage streamflow in comparison to the present land use practice.

Table of Contents

Chinese Abstract ii
Abstract iv
Acknowledgement vi
Table of Contents vii
List of Tables xi
List of Figures xi
List of Abbreviations xiii
List of Nomenclatures xiv
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Problem statement 3
1.3 Rationale 3
1.4 Goal 5
1.6 Objectives 5
Chapter 2: Literature Review 6
2.1 Climate Change 6
2.2 Land Use Change 7
2.3 Climate Change Impact Assessment Methodology 8
2.4 Use of Climate Models: Global Climate Model (GCM) 9
2.5 Climate Scenarios 10
2.6 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) 11
2.7 Watershed Hydrological Modeling 13
2.8 Previous Studies 14
Chapter 3: Study Area 16
3.1 Background 16
3.2 Climate 17
3.3 Topography 18

3.4 Soil 18
3.5 Economy 20
3.6 Water Resources 20
3.7 Study Site 22
3.7.1 Montreal Watershed 22
3.7.2 Climate 23
3.7.3 Soil and Vegetation 23
3.7.4 Land Use and Economic Activities 24
3.7.5 Problem in Watershed 24
Chapter 4: Methodology 25
4.1 Data Collection 26
4.2 Data Processing 27
4.3 Model Selection: TaiWAP 27
4.4 Climate Scenario 29
4.5 GWLF Model Inputs 30
4.6 Future Daily Weather Data 30
4.7 Runoff Curve Number 31
4.8 Evaporation Cover Coefficient 31
4.9 Soil Water Capacity 32
4.10 Recession and Seepage Coefficient 32
4.11 Initial Saturated and Unsaturated Storage 33
Chapter 5: Results and Discussion 33
5.1 Model Calibration 33
5.2 Precipitation 35
5.2.1 Discussion 40
5.3 Temperature 42
5.3.1 Discussion 46
5.4 Climate Change on Streamflow 47
5.4.1 Discussion 52

5.5 Land Use Change on Streamflow (2050s) 54
5.5.1 Scenario 1, 2, 3: GFDL-CM2.1 A2 (dry season) 55
5.5.2 Scenario 1, 2, 3: GFDL-CM2.1 A1B (dry season) 56
5.5.3 Scenario 1, 2, 3: GFDL-CM2.1 B1 (dry season) 58
5.5.4 Scenario 1, 2, 3: ECHAM5 A2 (dry season) 59
5.5.5 Scenario 1, 2, 3: ECHAM5 A1B (dry season) 60
5.5.6 Scenario 1, 2, 3: ECHAM5 B1 (dry season) 61
5.5.7 Scenario 1, 2, 3: GFDL-CM2.1 A2 (wet season) 62
5.5.8 Scenario 1, 2, 3: GFDL-CM2.1 A1B (wet season) 64
5.5.9 Scenario 1, 2, 3: GFDL-CM2.1 B1 (wet season) 65
5.5.10 Scenario 1, 2, 3: ECHAM5 A2 (wet season) 66
5.5.11 Scenario 1, 2, 3: ECHAM5 A1B (wet season) 67
5.5.12 Scenario 1, 2, 3: ECHAM5 B1 (wet season) 68
5.5.13 Discussion (dry and wet season) 69
Chapter 6: Sustainable and Integrated Watershed Management Plan 75
6.1 Sustainable and Integrated Watershed Management Goals 75
6.2 Sustainable and Integrated Watershed Management Strategies 77
6.2.1 Strategy 1: Increase Urbanization 77
6.2.2 Strategy 2: Increase Agriculture 77
6.2.3 Strategy 3: Protection and Policy 78
6.2.4 Strategy 4: Information, Education and Stakeholder Involvement and Stewardship 78
Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations 80
7.1 Conclusions 80
7.2 Recommendations 82



References 83
Appendix A 90
Appendix B 92
Appendix C 93
Appendix D 94

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