臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著人民環境意&;#63996;抬頭，空氣品質已經漸漸的受到重視，總&;#63870;管制策&;#63862;是透過推估污染排放&;#63870;，達到&;#63870;化污染源造成污染程&;#64001;的功用，然而，目前國內常用的空氣污染排放&;#63870;估算方法為排放係&;#63849;法，係透過機械組件&;#63849;&;#63870;和機械排放係&;#63849;計算，並沒有考&;#63870;到實際觀測情形。本研究透過有美國環保署認可之優選大氣擴散模式—CALPUFF，建&;#63991;研究區域之空氣污染模式，並採用逆大氣擴散模式，即結合環境觀測值運算，得到推估的排放&;#63870;，並比較其與排放係&;#63849;法所得結&;#63809;。石化工業為國內二氧化&;#63950;主要的&;#63789;源之一，本研究區域為雲&;#63988;濱海地區，緊鄰&;#63978;島石化工業區，於1998 &;#63886;12 月正式啟用，本研究選定針對鄰近之麥&;#63932;、麥&;#63932;中學、台西、台西國中、&;#63957;背、宏&;#63957;國小、二&;#63988;，七個一般空氣測站評估模擬結果。由於工業區位於研究區域之西部，本研究依據西風盛&;#64008;月份選擇&;#63930;研究時間2012 &;#63886;7 月，並將模式依內建&;#63851;&;#63849;調整分為四組，NO.1、NO.2、NO.3、NO.4 欲比較其選項影響差&;#63842;，並整&;#63972;&;#63930;工業區啟用前後各測站之環境SO2 濃&;#64001;變化，並透過&;#63849;值統計指標評估其準確&;#64001;，並進而計算其SO2 總排放&;#63870;。其結果顯示NO.3、NO.4 模擬成果在麥&;#63932;、台西、&;#63957;背、宏&;#63957;國小地區均較NO.1、NO.2 為佳，麥&;#63932;中學NO.4 模擬相關係&;#63849;甚至高達0.75，麥&;#63932;測站NO.3一致性指標最高也高達0.55，而二&;#63988;地區之模擬成效差，推估可能與其他研究地區&;#63847;同的SO2 主要&;#63789;源型態。估計2012 &;#63886;7 月2 日~29 日，共28 天，SO2 推估總排放&;#63870;採用NO.3、NO.4 之推估為880~893 噸，與環評核訂換算28 天排放&;#63870;1224 噸較小，&;#63862;大於工業區自我評估換算的28 天517 噸。然而因為雲&;#63988;地區探空資&;#63934;缺乏、一般測站資&;#63934;&;#63847;齊全、&;#63849;位地型高層圖和土地&;#63965;用資&;#63934;有時間差&;#63842;、土地&;#63851;&;#63849;準確&;#64001;存疑等，以及研究結果標準差極高，種種皆代表研究仍有許多&;#63847;確定性有待再克服。

In the last 20 years, the Yunlin offshore industrial park has significantly contributed
to the economic development of Taiwan. Its annual production value has reached almost
12 % of Taiwan’s GDP in 2012. However, the offshore industrial park is considered the
major source of air pollution to nearby counties, especially, the emission of sulfate
dioxide (SO2). Although studies have found that exposures to high level of some SO2 have caused adverse health effects on both human and ecosystem, it is a critical issue in estimating SO2 emissions. Nowadays emission estimation techniques are usually used emissions factors in calculation. Because the methodology considered totality of
equipment activities based on statistical assumptions, it would encounter great uncertainty between these coefficients.
The methodology of this study attempts to estimate SO2 emission of the Yunlin Offshore Industrial Park using an inverse atmospheric dispersion model which is applied to the combination of CALPUFF dispersion model adopted by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) as a preferred model and observation data of SO2 at monitoring site in Yunlin district. After that, comparing the solution with observation data collected for the time before industrial operation in 1999 and after 2010 by the Taiwanese Environmental Protection Administration (TW EPA).
This study work in group on 4 kinds of dispersion coefficient around 7 monitoring sites. It shows well simulation performance on Tai-si, Mai-liao, Lun-bei Villages. In contract, the results in Er-lin Township is not well associated with the simulation and monitoring where might suffer from other pollution source.
Estimated SO2 emission in the study area from July 2, 2012 to July 29, 2012 is around 1612-880 ton which is a little lower than Environmental Impact Assessment’s approve but a little bit higher than industrial park’s self-announced.
Despite of that, the study result already have lots of challenge. There are so much uncertainty about land use data, terrain data, upper air data, parameter, even model
itself, the standard deviation shows high uncertainty.

謝誌 ................................... i
摘 要 .................................. ii
Abstract ............................... iii
圖目&;#63807; ................................. 3
表目&;#63807; ................................. 4
第一章 前言 ............................ 5
1.1 研究緣起 ........................... 5
1.2 研究目的 ........................... 6
1.3 研究&;#63946;程圖 ......................... 7
第二章 文獻回顧 ........................ 8
2.1 污染排放&;#63870;推估方法 ................. 8
2.2 二氧化&;#63950;的性質及對環境的影響 ....... 9
2.3 大氣擴散模式 ....................... 11
2.4 逆大氣擴散模式 ..................... 13
2.5.1 模式背景 ......................... 14
2.5.2 模式介紹 ......................... 14
2.5.3 擴散模式&;#63851;&;#63849;應用原&;#63972; ............. 25
第三章 研究方法與資&;#63934;介紹 .............. 26
3.1 逆大氣擴散模式操作&;#63946;程 ............. 26
3.2 CALMET 資&;#63934;使用 .................... 27
3.3 CALPUFF 及資&;#63934;使用 ................. 27
3.4 觀測值和模擬值&;#63849;值統計 ............. 27
3.5 研究區域介紹 ....................... 30
第四章 結果與討&;#63809; ...................... 31
4.1 研究資&;#63934;選擇 ....................... 31
4.2 研究區域&;#63851;&;#63849;選擇 ................... 36
4.3 CALPUFF &;#63851;&;#63849;變換 ................... 44
4.4 分組推估濃&;#64001;整體結果統計比較 ....... 45
4.5 推估各測站每日小時的濃&;#64001; ........... 47
4.6 2012 &;#63886;七月排放&;#63870;推估 .............. 54
4.7 &;#63847;確定性討&;#63809; ....................... 57
第五章 結&;#63809;與建議 ...................... 61
&;#63851;考文獻： ............................. 62
2
附&;#63807; 一 CALPUFF 控制檔&;#63851;&;#63849;設定 ......... 64
附&;#63807; 二 CALMET 輸入&;#63851;&;#63849;&;#63855;明與設定表 .... 67
附&;#63807; 三 使用自編之台西CTG 土地&;#63965;用編纂檔 68
附&;#63807; 四 使用自編之板橋TD-6201 探空資&;#63934;編纂檔 68
附&;#63807; 五 使用自編之台西CD-144 一般氣象資&;#63934;編纂檔 69

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