本文為解決一般以最小平方法(OLS)估計退休家庭及近乎退休家庭之休閒支出函數各參數，因為經濟戶長可以自行評估退休前、退休後兩種狀況之休閒支出，到底何者較具比較利益，而決定是否改變狀態為退休所引起之推論偏誤，經導入內生轉換迴歸模型(ESRM)，引用中央研究院調查研究專題中心「學術調查研究資料庫」之「家庭收支調查－2006年」之資料。
結果顯示經濟戶長決定退休之判別函數與象徵社會地位之教育程度別無關，而是受家庭所得、家庭特徵、住宅所有權、健康狀況、社會安全制度、潛在政策變革、壽命預期年限等社經變數影響；經濟戶長退休後，因有利其從事休閒活動之因素已非原來退休前之狀況，於是休閒支出花費較少。反之，經濟戶長決定不退休，有利其休閒支出之變數，較退休後好，於是便可以安排渡假，從事調劑身心之出國旅遊活動。
經濟戶長決定退休，且從事休閒活動或實現環遊世界之計畫已成熟，因此花費休閒支出所帶來之預期值，已超過平均預期值，故決定退休。另一方面，近乎退休者在擁有住宅之所有權、生活無慮等前題下，此刻若能利用空檔實現其計畫目標(如環遊世界)，或安排假期出國旅遊或利用假日從事休閒活動所帶來之預期值，絕對大於平均預期值，於是選擇不要退休。
本文彰顯變數之自我選擇問題及退休家庭暨近乎退休家庭之差異性，因此相關單位在制定政策或規劃遊憩產品或退休理財，應考量彼此間之相關性與特徵性。

We derived the endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) to solve the independent variables which sample selection lead to a biased inference about we estimated the retired household of the leisure expenditure equation and near retired household of the leisure expenditure equation with the OLS, because of the household heads would have been evaluated between the differences of the retired or unretired situation on leisure expenditures. We used the data from the Academia Sinica Research Program Center Databases Resources one of the 2006 Survey of Family Income and Expenditure Consumer Expenditure.
The empirical result shows that household head had been transferred to be a retiree which was decided by the criterion function and didn’t relate to education which was to be the symbol the social, but reference with the family income, characteristic family, home ownership, physical situation, the presence of a social security system, the effect of alternative policies on retirement behavior, the expected to lifetime etc. After the household heads retired which impacted on the leisure activities, have been differed from the unretired household, so they had to cut down the leisure expenditures. On the other hand, if the household heads doesn’t retire and still work in the job market, so they will spend more money on leisure expenditures for taking a vacation or going abroad.
The household heads compared with the conditional of retired and near-retired who were to be a retiree and choice to engage in leisure activities and consume recreational goods, those will get the utility above the average level of expectation. The household heads transferred to be a retiree and will spend more money on leisure expenditures or be accomplished the planning of travel round the world who retired have above-average expected object from retirement. Alternatively, the near-retired household heads who have held the home ownership, unworried about their living, who could arrange the journey to take a vacation who unretired have above-average expected object from unretirement.
This study provides the independent of the self-selection and the differentiate between the retired household and near-retired household, also provides information to researchers, policy makers, financial counselors, and business managers who focus on the leisure expenditures of retired and near-retired households.

第一章　前言………………………………………………………………1
第一節　研究動機………………………………………………………………1
第二節　研究目的………………………………………………………………2
第三節　研究方法………………………………………………………………3
第四節　論文架構………………………………………………………………3
第二章　文獻回顧…………………………………………………………5
第一節　休閒支出之相關研究…………………………………………………5
第二節　休閒需求之理論………………………………………………20
第三節　內生轉換迴歸模型(ESRM) 之相實證研究……………24
第四節　小結……………………………………………………………………32
第三章　資料來源及內容分析………………………………………34
第一節　資料來源………………………………………………………………34
第二節　衡量變數………………………………………………………………35
第三節　資料分析………………………………………………………………42
第四章　實證模型與結果分析……………………………………………46
第一節　實證理論模型之設立…………………………………………………46
第二節　實證理論模型之估計式………………………………………………49
第三節　實證模型之架構………………………………………………………52
第四節　實證結果與分析………………………………………………………56
第五節　小結……………………………………………………………………65
第五章　結論與建議………………………………………………………67
第一節　結論……………………………………………………………………67
第二節　建議……………………………………………………………………68
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………69

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