臺灣家庭均富的黃金時期是在1970年代，自1980年開始，家戶所得不均度開始逐年增加，吉尼係數從三十年前的0.278上升至2010年的0.342。期間不乏探討所得不均的文章，但文獻在2000年過後卻逐漸減少，且以往文獻對於所得不均度的探討， 大都只是對各項不均度指標的分析，卻少見對於各個家戶型態進行更深入的觀察。有別於既有文獻採用單一年度橫斷面資料進行分析，本研究採用1999年至2010年主計處家庭收支調查，以二元選擇模型(binary choice model)中的邏輯模型(Logit model)，搭配邊際效果(marginal effect)來探討各種屬性的家戶落入貧窮的可能性，並且進一步分析給定在不同戶長年齡、就業及老年人口比例對於家戶發生貧窮的程度。實證結果顯示，在考慮時間效果下，戶長行業別、戶長教育程度、戶長年齡、戶長性別、戶長從業身份、家庭組織形態、老年人口比例、就業人口比例、上網與否、房屋自有與否及區域別，對於落入貧窮皆有顯著的影響。

Income inequality of Taiwan has already been well-known for its unique experience. Since 1980, the income inequality has increased gradually. The Gini index rose from 0.278 in 1980 to 0.342 in 2010. Before 2000, there are many articles studying income inequality, but it rarely discusses this after 2000 from now. The literatures mostly focus on yearly income inequality indicators, but they ignored the household types can affect the income inequality. In this paper, we use the survey of family income and expenditure data from Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics(DGBAS) from 1999 to 2010. Different from the previous literatures, we use Logit model in binary choice
model with marginal effect to discuss the possibilities of household falling into poverty line. Secondly, we also set the different ages of the household heads, the ratio of employee and the ratio of the old to analyze. Finally, when we consider the time effect, the empirical result shows that the following variables are all significant factors, such as the industries of the household heads, the educational attainment of the household heads, the ages of the household heads, the sex of the household heads, the employment status of the household heads, the types of household, the ratio of employment, the ratio of the old, whether the households can surf the internet at home or not, whether the households own their house or not, and regional variable, which can be used to explain the possibilities of household falling into poverty line.

1 前言 1
2 文獻回顧 3
2.1 文獻探討 3
2.2 家計等值尺度 5
3 資料來源及變數說明 6
3.1 資料來源 6
3.2 模型選取變數 8
4 實證方法研究 14
4.1 貧窮線定義 14
4.2 Logit迴歸模型 14
4.3 Logit迴歸模型估計方法 16
4.4 邊際效果 18
5 實證結果分析 20
5.1 Logit迴歸模型估計結果 20
5.2 給定不同戶長年齡、老年和就業人口比例之估計結果 26
5.3 納入地區之估計結果 28
6 結論 28
參考文獻 49

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