由於觀光產業的蓬勃發展，吸引許多學者投入旅遊支出相關議題的研究，既有文獻大多是以家庭所得、戶長特性與社會經濟變數等作為解釋因子，且只用單年的家庭收支調查資料建立實證模型進行分析，未能看出影響旅遊支出因素的長期變化或消長情形。同時，過去文獻中大多使用最一般小平方法(ordinary least squares, OLS)的估計結果來探討解釋變數對應變數的影響，但其僅能描述被解釋變數的平均行為(averaging behavior)，難以掌握住條件分配所可能存在的不對稱行為，而Koenker and Bassett (1978)所提出的分量迴歸(quantile regression, QR) 則可以幫助我們掌握應變數在各分量下的條件分配行為，觀察層面較OLS之估計結果豐富。因此，本文使用1996至2006年之家庭收支調查資料，應用分量迴歸來探討影響臺灣家庭旅遊消費支出因素之長期變化，以提供政府及旅遊業者訂定觀光發展策略或規劃旅遊相關產品時之參考。實證結果顯示，家庭所得、都市化程度、擁有汽車數、戶長年齡、戶長教育程度、幼年人口比例等變數均可作為解釋國人家庭國內與國外旅遊支出的重要因素。同時由歷年的實證結果可知，影響國內和國外旅遊支出的因素並非一成不變，其影響效果可能會隨各年度消費者對國內和國外旅遊的多元化需求而有所不同。此外，各變數的跨分量檢定結果大多不顯著，使得分量迴歸所能提供給研究者更加豐富的觀察層面的優勢則大為削弱。

Due to the thriving developments observed in tourism industry, it is natural to attract many related topic researches in regard to tourism expenditures by scholars. And most of the existing literatures tend to adopt the family incomes, characteristics of the head of the household as well as social and economical variables as the explanatory factors; in addition, only the annual family income and expenditure surveys for one specific year were found to be used in the empirical analysis. Whereas, this approach would not allow observations for the long-term change perspectives or the rises and declines emanating from factors that would affect the family travel expenditures. Meantime, estimated results from OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) are found in the previous literature to explore the variable impacts to corresponding variables. Nonetheless, this only can describe the averaging behaviors of the dependent variables, but not the asymmetric behaviors possibly existed at the tail of the distribution. However, the quantile regression (QR) proposed by Koenker and Bassett (1978) can assist us with the control of the conditional distribution behaviors for each quantile for the dependent variable. Hence, this paper uses the family income and expenditure survey data between 1996 and 2006 and adopts the QR to explore the long-term changes for factors that impact Taiwan family travel expenditures. Empirical results show that household disposable income, urbanization, the number of car ownership, household long age, education level of household, the proportion of young population variables could explain the family as an important domestic and foregin tourism spending factorAnd the findings from this research are expected to provide both the government and tourism industry with references in enacting tourism development strategies or planning for tourism related products.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究動機與背景 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3研究架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1 國內部分 4
2.2 國外部分 5
第三章 實證方法與模型 8
3.1 分量迴歸的介紹 8
3.2分量迴歸 9
3.3 實證模型 10
第四章 實證分析 11
4.1 實證資料說明 11
4.2 實證結果 18
4.2.1影響總旅遊消費支出之結果 18
4.2.2影響國內旅遊消費支出之結果 20
4.2.3影響國外旅遊消費支出之結果 22
第五章 結論與建議 49
參考文獻 51

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