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研究生:李崑斌
研究生(外文):Li, Kuen Bin
論文名稱:選民的政治矛盾態度與分裂投票:2012年總統暨立法委員選舉的實證研究
論文名稱(外文):Political Ambivalence and Ticket Splitting: A Study of the 2012 Presidential and Legislative Election in Taiwan
指導教授:蔡宗漢蔡宗漢引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tsai, Tsung Han
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:政治研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:83
中文關鍵詞:分裂投票分立政府政治矛盾
外文關鍵詞:Split-ticket VotingDivided GovernmentPolitical Ambivalence
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鑑於我國分裂投票研究多數著重於縣市層級的地方首長與民意代表選舉,本文探討台灣首次於同日舉行的2012年總統暨立法委員選舉,援引「政治矛盾」(political ambivalence)做為研究架構,分析選民的一致與分裂投票。作者假設,選民的政治矛盾程度愈高,愈可能進行分裂投票;反之,民眾的政治矛盾態度愈低,愈可能採取一致投票。作者擷取「2009年至2012年『選舉與民主化調查』三年期研究規劃(3/3):2012年總統與立法委員選舉面訪案」調查資料,運用「勝算對數模型」(Binary Logit)與「多項勝算對數模型」(Multinomial Logit)進行檢證。資料顯示,在總統與區域立法委員選舉,以及總統與不分區立委選舉的分裂投票實證模型中,在控制其他變數的效應之下,選民的政治矛盾態度對於分裂與一致投票,確實具有顯著影響。此外,選民的省籍、制衡觀與政策平衡等因素,也與一致與分裂投票有關。在結論中,本文摘述分析要點,並提出政治矛盾態度的研究意涵。
In light of many election studies on straight and split ticket voting for the head of local government and councilors in Taiwan, I focus on people's ticket splitting of the 2012 presidential and legislative campaign which is the first election holding on one day. This article introduces political "ambivalence" to explain why people vote split or not. I assume the voters who have more ambivalent about KMT and DPP, more ticket splitting; and the straight ticket voters should be less ambivalence. My dates are based on "Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2012: Presidential and Legislative Election," and analyzed with Binary Logit and Multinomial Logit. When controlling other variables, party ambivalence intensively affects voters' straight and split ticket voting not only for president and constituency legislators but for president and party block legislators, and nearly all coefficients are statistically significant. By the way, provincial origin, cognitive Madisonianism, and policy balancing on independence issue or social welfare correlate to straight and split ticket voting in models. I conclude the major findings and research limitations at the end.
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 矛盾的政治態度 4
第二節 分裂投票的理論 6
(一) 蓄意說 7
(二) 非蓄意說 9
第三節 政治矛盾與分裂投票 12
(一) 政治態度與分裂投票的關係 12
(二) 「矛盾」政治態度 14
第四節 本土的分裂投票研究 14
第三章 研究架構與設計 19
第一節 資料來源 19
第二節 一致與分裂投票的模式 20
第三節 政治矛盾的操作化 28
第四節 其他影響分裂投票的變數 33
(一) 政策平衡 34
(二) 制衡觀 35
(三) 政黨認同 35
(四) 教育程度與政治知識 36
(五) 年齡與省籍 37
第四章 台灣選民的政治矛盾 39
第一節 政治矛盾的初探 39
第二節 政治矛盾選民的屬性 41
(一) 人際關係交叉網路與政治矛盾 42
(二) 政治意識與政治矛盾 44
(三) 人口統計變數與政治矛盾 46
第三節 誰是政治矛盾的選民? 47
第五章 勝算對數模型的實證分析 51
第一節 一致與分裂投票的勝算對數模型 51
第六章 多項勝算對數模型的實證結果 57
第一節 一致與分裂投票模式的統計檢定 57
第二節 多項勝算對數模型的分析 60
第七章 結論與建議 67
參考文獻 71
第一節 中文書目 71
第二節 英文書目 72
附錄:TEDS 2012問卷題目節錄與重新編碼 77

中文書目
王業立、彭怡菲,2004,〈分裂投票:一個制度面的分析〉,《台灣政治學刊》8(1):3-45。
王鼎銘,2007,〈成本效益、公民責任與政治參與:2004年公民投票的分析〉,《東吳政治學報》25(1):1-37。
王鼎銘、郭銘峰,2009,〈混合式選制下的投票思維:台灣與日本國會選舉變革經驗的比較〉,《選舉研究》16(2):101-130。
林長志、黃紀,2007,〈不同層級選舉中之一致與分裂投票:2005年台北縣之分析〉,《問題與研究》46(1):1-32。
洪永泰,1995,〈分裂投票:八十三年台北市選舉的實證分析〉,《選舉研究》2(1):119-145。
吳怡銘,2001,〈台北市選民分裂投票之研究:民國八十七年市長市議員選舉之分析〉,《選舉研究》8(1):159-209。
吳重禮,1998,〈美國「分立性政府」與「一致性政府」體制運作之比較與評析〉,《政治科學論叢》9:61-90。
吳重禮,2000,〈美國「分立性政府」研究文獻之評析:兼論台灣地區的政治發展〉,《問題與研究》39(3):75-101。
吳重禮,2008,〈政黨偏好、制衡認知與分裂投票—2006年北高市長暨議員選舉的實證分析〉,《臺灣民主季刊》5(2):27-58。
吳重禮、王宏忠,2003,〈我國選民「分立政府」心理認知與投票穩定度:以2000年總統選舉與2001年立法委員選舉為例〉,《選舉研究》10(1):81-114。
吳重禮、徐英豪、李世宏,2004,〈選民分立政府心理認知與投票行為:以2002年北高市長暨議員選舉為例〉,《政治科學論叢》21:75-116。
徐火炎,2001,〈一九九八年二屆台北市長選舉選民投票行為之分析:選民的黨派抉擇與分裂投票〉,《東吳政治學報》13:77-127。
盛杏湲,2010,〈台灣選民政黨認同的穩定與變遷:定群追蹤資料的應用〉,《選舉研究》17(2):1-33。
許勝懋,2001,〈台北市選民的分裂投票行為:一九九八年市長選舉分析〉,《選舉研究》8(1):117-158。
許勝懋,2009,〈台北市選民具有制衡觀嗎?1998 年及2002 年市長選舉之比較研究〉,《選舉評論》7:69-96。
游清鑫,2004,〈分裂投票解釋觀點與台灣選舉之應用:以2002年高雄市長與市議員選舉為例〉,《台灣政治學刊》8(1):47-98。
黃紀,2001,〈一致與分裂投票:方法論之探討〉,《人文及社會科學集刊》13(5):541-574。
黃紀,2005,〈投票穩定與變遷之分析方法:定群類別資料之馬可夫鍊模型〉,《選舉研究》,12(1): 1-35。
黃紀、張益超,2001,〈一致與分裂投票:嘉義市一九九七年市長與立委選舉之分析〉,載於徐永明、黃紀主編:《政治分析的層次》,台北:韋伯文化,頁183-218。
黃紀、王德育,2012,《質變數與受限依變數的迴歸分析》,台北:五南圖書出版公司。
黃德福,1991,〈台灣地區七十八年底選舉分裂投票之初探研究:以臺北縣、雲林縣與高雄縣為個案〉,《政治學報》,19:55-80。
蕭怡靖、黃紀,2010,〈單一選區兩票制下的一致與分裂投票—2008年立法委員選舉的探討〉,《臺灣民主季刊》7(3):1-43。
劉從葦,2003,〈中央與地方分立政府的形成:一個空間理論的觀點〉,《台灣政治學刊》7(2):107-147。
英文書目
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Alvarez, R. Michael, and Matthew M. Schousen. 1993. “Policy Moderation or Conflicting Expectations? Testing the Intentional Models of Split-Ticket Voting.” American Politics Quarterly 21(4): 410-438.
Anderson, J. A. 1984. “Regression and Ordered Categorical Variables.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B(Methodological) 46(1): 1-30.
Basinger, Scott J., and Howard Lavine. 2005. “Ambivalence, Information, and Electoral Choice.” American Political Science Review 99(2): 169-184.
Beck, Paul Allen, Lawrence Baum, Aage R. Clausen, and Charles E. Smith. 1992. “Patterns and Sources of Ticket Splitting in Subpresidential Voting.” American Political Science Review 86(4): 916-928.
Berelson, Bernard R., Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee. 1954. Voting: a Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Born, Richard. 1994. “Split-Ticket Voters, Divided Government, and Fiorina’s Policy-Balancing Model.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 19(1): 95-115.
Burden, Barry C., and David C. Kimball. 1998. “A New Approach to the Study of Ticket Splitting.” American Political Science Review 92(3): 533-544.
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1965. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59(1): 7-28.
Campbell, Angus, and Warren E. Miller. 1957. “The Motivational Basis of Straight and Split Ticket Voting.” American Political Science Review 51(2): 293-312.
Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.
Carsey, Thomas M., and Geoffrey C. Layman. 2004. “Policy Balancing and Preferences for Party Control of Government.” Political Research Quarterly 57 (4): 541-50.
Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics” In Ideology and Discontent, ed. David E. Apter. New York: Free Press. Pp. 206-261.
Converse, Philip E. 1970. “Attitudes and Non-Attitudes: Continuation of a Dialogue.” In The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems, ed. Edward R. Tufte. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Pp. 168-189.
Converse, Philip E., and Gregory B. Markus. 1979. “Plus ca change...: The New CPS Election Study Panel.” American Political Science Review 73(1): 32-49.
Cox, Gary W., and Samuel Kernell. 1991. The Politics of Divided Government. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Feigert, Frank B. 1979. “Illusions of Ticket-Splitting.” American Politics Quarterly 7(4): 470-488.
Fiorina, Morris P. 1994. “Response to Born.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 19(1): 117-125.
Fiorina, Morris P. 1996. Divided Government. 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan.
Fiske, T. Susan, and Patricia W. Linville. 1980. “What Does the Schema Concept Buy Us?” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 6(4): 543-557.
Garand, James C., and Marci Glascock Lichtl. 2000. “Explaining Divided Government in the United States: Testing an Intentional Model of Split-Ticket Voting.” British Journal of Political Science 30(1): 173-191.
Greene, Steven. 2005. “The Structure of Partisan Attitudes: Reexamining Partisan Dimensionality and Ambivalence.” Political Psychology 26(5): 809-822.
Green, Donald, Bradley Palmquist, Eric Schickler. 2002. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Hill, M. Anne. 1983. “Female Labor Force Participation in Developing and Developed Countries-- Consideration of the Informal Sector.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 65(3): 459-468.
Hausman, Jerry A., and McFadden, Daniel. 1984. “Specification tests for the multinomial logit model.” Econometrica (52): 1219-1240.
Hochschild, Jennifer L. 1981. What's Fair? American Beliefs about Distributive Justice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Huckfeldt, Robert, Jeanette Morehouse Mendez, and Tracy Osborn. 2004. “Disagreement, Ambivalence, and Engagement: The Political Consequences of Heterogeneous Networks.” Political Psychology 25(1): 65-95.
Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1946-1988. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Jacobson, Gary C. 1991. “The Persistence of Democratic House Majorities.” In The Politics of Divided Government, ed. Gary W. Cox and Samuel Kernell. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Pp. 57-84.
Keele, Luke, and Jennifer Wolak. 2006. “Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification.” British Journal of Political Science 36(4): 671-690.
Keele, Luke, and Jennifer Wolak. 2008. “Contextual Sources of Ambivalence.” Political Psychology 29(5): 653-673.
Keith, Bruce E., David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth Orr, Mark C. Westlye, and Raymond E. Wolfinger. 1992. The Myth of the Independent Voter. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Ladd, Everett Carll. 1990. “Public Opinion and the ‘Congress Problem’.” Public Interest 100: 57-67.
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Lewis-Beck, Michael S., William G. Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth, and Herbert F. Weisberg. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
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1. 王鼎銘,2007,〈成本效益、公民責任與政治參與:2004年公民投票的分析〉,《東吳政治學報》25(1):1-37。
2. 王鼎銘,2007,〈成本效益、公民責任與政治參與:2004年公民投票的分析〉,《東吳政治學報》25(1):1-37。
3. 王鼎銘、郭銘峰,2009,〈混合式選制下的投票思維:台灣與日本國會選舉變革經驗的比較〉,《選舉研究》16(2):101-130。
4. 王鼎銘、郭銘峰,2009,〈混合式選制下的投票思維:台灣與日本國會選舉變革經驗的比較〉,《選舉研究》16(2):101-130。
5. 林長志、黃紀,2007,〈不同層級選舉中之一致與分裂投票:2005年台北縣之分析〉,《問題與研究》46(1):1-32。
6. 林長志、黃紀,2007,〈不同層級選舉中之一致與分裂投票:2005年台北縣之分析〉,《問題與研究》46(1):1-32。
7. 吳怡銘,2001,〈台北市選民分裂投票之研究:民國八十七年市長市議員選舉之分析〉,《選舉研究》8(1):159-209。
8. 吳怡銘,2001,〈台北市選民分裂投票之研究:民國八十七年市長市議員選舉之分析〉,《選舉研究》8(1):159-209。
9. 吳重禮,1998,〈美國「分立性政府」與「一致性政府」體制運作之比較與評析〉,《政治科學論叢》9:61-90。
10. 吳重禮,1998,〈美國「分立性政府」與「一致性政府」體制運作之比較與評析〉,《政治科學論叢》9:61-90。
11. 吳重禮,2000,〈美國「分立性政府」研究文獻之評析:兼論台灣地區的政治發展〉,《問題與研究》39(3):75-101。
12. 吳重禮,2000,〈美國「分立性政府」研究文獻之評析:兼論台灣地區的政治發展〉,《問題與研究》39(3):75-101。
13. 吳重禮,2008,〈政黨偏好、制衡認知與分裂投票—2006年北高市長暨議員選舉的實證分析〉,《臺灣民主季刊》5(2):27-58。
14. 吳重禮,2008,〈政黨偏好、制衡認知與分裂投票—2006年北高市長暨議員選舉的實證分析〉,《臺灣民主季刊》5(2):27-58。
15. 吳重禮、王宏忠,2003,〈我國選民「分立政府」心理認知與投票穩定度:以2000年總統選舉與2001年立法委員選舉為例〉,《選舉研究》10(1):81-114。