台灣目前除了人口老化嚴重之外，中高齡勞工的勞動參與率相較於美、日、韓等先進國家要低得多。更會因為目前少子化與高齡化現象，在未來可能會面臨勞動力短缺的情況發生，因而對我們的勞動市場有所衝擊，進而影響到我們國家整體的發展與經濟表現。因此，了解台灣中高齡勞工退出勞動市場的原因，並提高台灣中高齡勞工的勞動參與率，是我們目前必須面對的重要課題之一。本文透過華人家庭動態資料庫(Panel Study of Family Dynamics, PSFD)來進行分析，建構自2000 年至2011 年的追蹤資料，透過邏輯斯迴歸(Logistic Regression)進行追蹤資料分析。根據實證結果顯示，隨著年齡的提高，參與勞動的意願也會降低。除此之外，由於中高齡勞工健康狀況惡化也會使他們選擇退出勞動市場。而在退休時有領退休金的人，意味著他有的財富水準較高而比較不願參與勞動。而針對有配偶的樣本的部份，有配偶的女性，健康狀態欠佳不影響其參與勞動的機率，且在家庭因素變數中，女性只會因為配偶有工作會提高參與勞動的機率。而男性除了配偶有工作之外，也會因為家中有未成年子女兒較傾向參與勞動。在金融海嘯之後，男性女性參與勞動的機率均有顯著地減少。

Over the last three decades, the number of elderly labor force in Taiwan has increased owing to the improvement in health care and life expectancy. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate of population aged 50-64 has dropped substantially and the rate is relatively low in comparison with Japan, Korean, and the US. Since the mandatory retirement age is sixty-five in Taiwan, the decline in participation, particularly for men, implies a common trend in early retirement. We plan to utilize the data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) since 1999 to discuss the decisions of labor participation for older workforce. This panel dataset contain detailed information regarding interviewee’s personal background, working history, and most importantly, the performance of the industry in which the individual was
holding his job currently or held his job in the past.Our empirical results show that the willingness to participate in the labor force for elderly workers is negatively related to their age. The deterioration of the health conditions also makes elderly workers opt out of the labor market. In addition, when elderly workers have retired with pension, which often implies a better status of wealth, they are relatively reluctant to participate in labor market. For the currently
married couples, women with poor health status do not affect their probability of labor force participation. As to the family factors, women whose spouses are currently employed will increase their likelihood of participation. The husbands with working wives or with minor children are more inclined to participate in the labor force. In the wake of the financial tsunami, both older men and women are less likely to participate
in the labor force. These results should improve our understating of early retirement decision in Taiwan and provide policy relevance in the labor market.

摘 要 ........................................................................................................................ ii
Abstract .................................................................................................................... iii
目 錄 ....................................................................................................................... iv
表 目 錄 .................................................................................................................. v
圖 目 錄 ................................................................................................................. vi
第ㄧ章 緒論............................................................................................................. 1
第二章 文獻探討 ..................................................................................................... 6
2.1 社會福利津貼與保險 .................................................................................. 6
2.2 健康因素 .................................................................................................... 7
2.3 個人財務狀態與家庭因素 ......................................................................... 8
2.4 其他因素 .................................................................................................... 9
2.5 國內文獻 .................................................................................................. 10
第三章 資料處理與變數說明 ................................................................................ 12
3.1 資料說明 ................................................................................................. 12
3.2 變數說明 ................................................................................................. 14
3.3 資料處理 ................................................................................................. 14
第四章 模型設定與敘述統計值 ............................................................................ 16
4.1 邏輯斯迴歸 (Logistic Regression) .......................................................... 16
4.2 追蹤資料模型 ......................................................................................... 17
4.2.1 隨機效果模型 (Random Effect Model) .......................................... 17
4.2.2 固定效果模型 (Fixed Effect Model) .............................................. 17
4.2.3 Hausman Test .................................................................................. 18
4.3 模型設定 ................................................................................................. 19
4.4 敘述統計值 ............................................................................................. 20
第五章 實證結果分析 ........................................................................................... 24
5.1 工作狀態 .................................................................................................. 24
5.2 勞動力狀態 .............................................................................................. 31
第六章 結論........................................................................................................... 38
文獻參考 ................................................................................................................ 39

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