臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要
台灣的筆記型電腦工業已經開發超過十年，在全球的筆記型產業扮演著一個重要角色，不僅如此，從2000年開始就有超過50%市場佔有率。在先前的筆記型電腦都是為了商業人士基本需求所設計的，像是寫文件，上網等等。再來的筆記型電腦則是強調多媒體的功能，而最近是筆記型電腦公司所推出讓大家所注目的新產品，迷你筆記型電腦。
這項研究是利用灰色理論少數據小樣本的特性來預測，利用GM (1,1)的四期預測分析2004到2007的資料，來預測2008到2013的銷售數量，分析這些預測的結果，主要是給筆記型電腦公司建議。
這個研究主要是用GM (1,1) 模型，來預測台灣的筆記型電腦，預測的結果準確度也超過90%以上，符合灰色理論的所強調，少量資料跟訊息優先性的特性。因此，這也證明了用灰色預測來證明未來的筆記型電腦趨勢是有實用性的，這也可以讓筆記型電腦公司準備行銷策略。

ABSTRACT
The notebook computer industry in Taiwan has been developing for over ten years and plays an important status in globally notebook computer industry. It has accounted for over 50 percent of notebook market share in the whole world since 2000. The former notebook computer was designed to those businessmen who require the basic function of writing document, surfing the website and so on. Nowadays, the notebook computer is emphasizing its multimedia, video and the other related function. In addition, there is a new product call Netbook, it is a new business to development.
This study is to utilize grey theory''s feature of being able to make predictions on the basis of scanty data and a small sample. The GM (1,1) four points prediction model was used in conjunction with 2004 to 2007 to predict development trends for from 2008 to 2013. Analysis of these predictions was used to make recommendations for notebook companies.
Researcher performs grey prediction GM (1,1) model to forecast the notebook computer industry in Taiwan. As a result, its forecasting result''s precision reaches above 90%. It conforms to the grey theory characteristic of emphasizing less data sample and priority of new information. Also, it proves that grey prediction was used for the coming tendency of notebook computer industry is effectively and refers to notebook computer company for preparing the marketing strategy.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT i
TABLE OF CONTENTS iv
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF FIGURES vii
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION .................... 1
Research Motivation and Background ............................ 1
The Purpose of Study .............................. 3
Research Procedure .......................... 3
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW ........................... 6
The Definition of Prediction............................. 6
Grey System Theory and Application ............................... 8
Grey Prediction .................................. 9
Related Grey Prediction Study ............... 12
CHAPTER THREE NOTEBOOK INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ........... 18
The Market Trend of Notebook in the Global ............. 18
Notebook Computer Industry in Taiwan ............ 20
Perspective of Notebook Industry in Taiwan ................. 22
Mini notebook................ 23
CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY ............... 25
Grey Prediction Basic Model ........................... 25
The Steps of Building GM(1,1) model.................... 28
CHAPTER FIVE DATA ANALYSIS ..............31
Data ................. 31
Data Analysis ............................... 31
The Future Tendency of Notebook Computer Quantity ............ 34
CHAPTER SIX RESULT.................................37
Conclusion .............. 37
Suggestion ................. 38
Limitation ................................39
REFERENCE.........................................40
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 The Comparison between traditional predictions with the grey prediction .............. 12
Table 2 The grey predict theory related researches ......................... 13
Table 3 The comparison of first and second low price laptop plan ................................. 20
Table 4 Total Sales and Growth Rate in Global NB Market ............................ 21
Table 5 Output of Domestic NB manufacturers .......................... 21
Table 6 International Notebook Computer Quantity ................... 31
Table 7 The comparison of forecasting precision of international notebook quantity ............. 33
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 The research procedure...............5
Figure 2 The result of forecasting result from 2008 to 2009......................................34
Figure 3 The result of forecasting result from 2010 to 2011..................35
Figure 4 The result of forecasting result from 2012 to 2013...............36

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