臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

廢汽車的許多部份有經濟價值，但也含有有害物質，若未適當地處理，將會對環境造成危害。為了解廢汽車拆解效益，本研究以臺灣所產生廢汽車為主要案例區域，以生命週期評估及廢汽車各零組件成本因素分析，探討在不同處理方式，對於環境衝擊與成本效益之影響外，並以蒙地卡羅方法，評估其不確定性分佈數據範圍。建立灰色系統規劃模式，來評估拆解不確定性之下的最佳策略，以達到對環境的影響最小化和經濟利益最大化之目標。根據分析結果顯示，由利潤最大化的角度，引擎、避震器、輪圈以及電線應依序優先拆解；但從環境衝擊最小化來看，則應優先拆解鉛蓄電池、含汞元件、冷媒以及安全氣囊，以達到降低環境衝擊之目的。此外，以模式的分析結果發現，若補貼改以拆解時間內，所能降低的單位衝擊進行計算，在相同的補貼金額下，可比現今補貼政策減少約65%的環境衝擊。此外，若要經由拆解符合歐盟廢車指令85%之回收目標，需將補貼費增加至1,357元，根據不確定性分析，將可符合95%的回收商的拆解成本。

Components of end life vehicles (ELV) are valuable but harmful to the environment if not properly dismantled and treated. To evaluate the optimal strategy of ELV dismantling, the dismantlers in Taiwan were explored in this study. Life cycle analysis and cost factors analysis of ELV components are implemented to assess the environmental impacts and cost/benefit effect. Monte Carlo simulation was also applied to assess the range of cost factor and environmental impact. A gray optimization model which incorporated with the uncertainty information was established to evaluate the optimal dismantling strategy. The goals of this model were to minimize environmental impact and to maximize economic benefits of a dismantler. Based on the foregoing analysis, the parts to be dismantled in a descending order of profit were engine, suspension, wheels, and automotive cable. While in viewpoints of environmental impacts, lead-acid batteries, mercury-containing components, refrigerants, and airbags were suggested to be removed in serial. In addition, subsidy policy based on the avoided environmental impacts over work hours is suggested rather than the existing regulated items removal and fixed subsidy. Based on the model results, the suggested subsidy can reduce 65% with the identical level of the existing subsidy. To meet the goal of 85% recycling rate by dismantling, the subsidy might be raised to 1,357 NTD to cover the man-hour cost of 95% dismantlers by uncertainty analysis.

目錄
摘要 I
Abstract ...............................................................................................................II
致謝....................................................................................................................III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VIII
圖目錄 IX
第一章 前言.........................................................................................................1
1.1研究背景.................................................................................................1
1.2研究目的.................................................................................................4
1.3論文內容.................................................................................................5
第二章 文獻回顧.................................................................................................6
2.1 廢汽車拆解回收現況............................................................................6
2.2生命週期評估.........................................................................................9
2.2.1 生命週期評估方法.....................................................................11
2.2.2 綜合衝擊評量.............................................................................12
2.3 不確定性分析......................................................................................15
2.3.1蒙地卡羅方法..............................................................................15
2.4 廢汽車拆解模式規劃..........................................................................17
2.4.1 數學規劃模式.............................................................................18
2.4.2 灰色系統規劃.............................................................................19
第三章 研究方法...............................................................................................21
3.1 系統邊界..............................................................................................22
3.2 相關資料蒐集......................................................................................23
3.2.1 環境衝擊資料.............................................................................24
3.2.1.1 研究衝擊假設..................................................................25
3.2.1.2 環境衝擊計算方式..........................................................25
3.2.1.3 環境衝擊不確定性..........................................................26
3.2.2 成本資料.....................................................................................27
3.2.2.1 研究成本計算方式..........................................................27
3.2.2.2 拆解費用不確定性..........................................................28
3.3蒙地卡羅抽樣分析...............................................................................28
3.3.1 蒙地卡羅抽樣工具.....................................................................29
3.3.2機率分佈......................................................................................30
3.3.3 機率分配設定.............................................................................32
3.3.4 抽樣條件設定.............................................................................33
3.4 數學模式規劃......................................................................................35
3.5 廢汽車拆解規劃..................................................................................40
3.5.1 拆解補貼分析.............................................................................41
第四章 案例研究...............................................................................................43
4.1環境衝擊資料分析...............................................................................43
4.2成本資料分析.......................................................................................47
4.3不確定分析...........................................................................................49
4.3.1 環境衝擊不確定分析.................................................................53
4.3.1.1 環境衝擊-單項不確定....................................................54
4.3.1.2 環境衝擊-多項不確定....................................................57
4.3.1.3 環境衝擊-資料庫不確定................................................60
4.3.2拆解費用不確定性分析..............................................................65
4.3.3灰數區間......................................................................................67
4.4數學規劃...............................................................................................68
4.4.1 零組件分析.................................................................................69
4.4.2廢汽車拆解模式分析..................................................................71
4.4.3 廢汽車行政補貼.........................................................................80
4.5案例結果分析.......................................................................................88
第五章 結論與建議...........................................................................................91
5.1結論.......................................................................................................91
5.2 建議......................................................................................................93
參考文獻.............................................................................................................94
附錄...................................................................................................................100
附錄 1 資料庫之不確定分析.................................................................100
附錄 2 廢汽車車體組成.........................................................................103
附錄 3 各零組件未拆解與拆解衝擊數據.............................................118
附錄4蒙地卡羅抽樣數據.......................................................................121
附錄5 廢汽車零組件未拆解與拆解之平均和上下界值數據..............132

表目錄
表1.1 廢車拆解成份比例(每輛廢車中).............................................................2
表1.2 廢汽車中含有危害物質及應用上可能產生危害與影響........................3
表3.1 不確定範疇模式代號表..........................................................................34
表3.2 模式代號表..............................................................................................36
表4.1 廢汽車各零組件分析...............................................................................45
表4.2 評估衝擊資料...........................................................................................46
表4.3 成本評估資料...........................................................................................48
表4.4 冷媒之環境衝擊數據-ecoinvent 資料庫................................................50
表4.5 HID燈含汞量之環境衝擊數據-ecoinvent資料庫..................................51
表4.6 鉛蓄電池含鉛量之環境衝擊數據-ecoinvent 資料庫............................52
表4.7 環境衝擊不確定......................................................................................53
表4.8 冷媒之環境衝擊數據-JEMAI-LCA Pro 資料庫...................................62
表4.9 鉛蓄電池含鉛量之環境衝擊數據-JEMAI-LCA Pro 資料庫................62
表4.10 廢汽車零組件重量資料-95%信賴區間...............................................68
表4.11 廢汽車拆解和未拆解分析....................................................................72
表4.12 限制拆解利潤和環境效益之比例值....................................................75
表4.13 處理衝擊最佳化模式之結果................................................................76
表4.14 處理費用最佳化模式之結果................................................................76
表4.15 處理廢汽車零組件之最適化結果.........................................................80
表4.16 以不同方案行政補貼之最適化結果.....................................................82
表4.17 以不確定分析之區間分析拆解所需費用-拆解成本為負....................87

圖目錄
圖2.1 歐盟廢車回收指令(ELV)相關時程.........................................................7
圖2.2 拆解利益分析圖........................................................................................9
圖2.3 生命週期發展歷史..................................................................................10
圖2.4 ISO生命週期評估架構............................................................................10
圖2.5 Eco-indicator 99 評估架構.......................................................................13
圖2.6 ecoinvent資料庫所使用的不確定性機率分佈方式...............................16
圖3.1 研究流程圖...............................................................................................21
圖3.2 廢汽車拆解和未拆解分析......................................................................23
圖3.3 常態分佈圖..............................................................................................30
圖3.4 均等分佈圖..............................................................................................30
圖3.5 三角分佈圖..............................................................................................31
圖3.6 對數常態分佈圖......................................................................................31
圖3.7 平均值均一化示意圖..............................................................................33
圖4.1 廢汽車拆解回收廠實景(峻輝汽車股份有限公司)...............................44
圖4.2 廢汽車各零組件未拆解和拆解衝擊-評價加權結果..............................46
圖4.3 廢汽車各零組件拆解利潤.......................................................................47
圖4.4 冷媒盤查數據之機率分佈(kg)...............................................................51
圖4.5 HID 燈含汞量盤查數據之機率分佈(kg)................................................52
圖4.6 鉛蓄電池之含鉛量盤查數據之機率分佈(kg).......................................53
圖4.7 單項不確定-資料庫不確定(盤查重量數據固定)之衝擊分析..............54
圖4.8 單項不確定-盤查重量不確定(資料庫數據固定)之衝擊分析..............56
圖4.9 HID燈含汞量在土地使用之衝擊分析-衝擊和盤查數據不確定..........58
圖4.10 HID燈含汞量在致癌物之衝擊分析-衝擊和盤查數據不確定............59
圖4.11 冷媒在土地使用之衝擊分析-衝擊和盤查數據不確定......................59
圖4.12 鉛蓄電池含鉛量在土地使用之衝擊分析-衝擊和盤查數據不確定..60
圖4.13 鉛蓄電池含鉛量在生態毒性之衝擊分析-衝擊和盤查數據不確定..60
圖4.14 資料庫數據不確定(盤查重量固定)之衝擊分析-JEMAI-LCA Pro......63
圖4.15 盤查重量不確定(資料庫數據固定)之衝擊分析-JEMAI-LCA Pro......64
圖4.16 冷媒在土地使用之衝擊分析-JEMAI-LCA Pro...................................65
圖4.17 鉛蓄電池含鉛量在土地使用之衝擊分析-JEMAI-LCA Pro................65
圖4.18 拆解費用不確定下的機率分布............................................................66
圖4.19 廢汽車拆解之環境衝擊分析.................................................................70
圖4.20 廢汽車拆解之拆解利潤效益分析........................................................70
圖4.21 廢汽車零組件分析圖............................................................................73
圖4.22 處理衝擊最佳化模式之結果.................................................................74
圖4.23 處理費用最佳化模式之結果.................................................................74
圖4.24 廢汽車拆解之可行解分布圖.................................................................77
圖4.25 廢汽車拆解之可行解分布圖(常態).....................................................78
圖4.26 廢汽車拆解之可行解分布圖(對數常態).............................................78
圖4.27 廢汽車拆解之重量分佈範圍................................................................79
圖4.28 現況與無行政補貼可行解分布圖.........................................................83
圖4.29 以770 元為拆解廢汽車行政補貼之利潤最適化結果(1)....................83
圖4.30 以770 元為拆解廢汽車行政補貼之利潤最適化結果(2)....................84
圖4.31 以1000元為拆解廢汽車行政補貼之利潤最適化結果.......................85
圖4.32 以1500元為拆解廢汽車行政補貼之利潤最適化結果.......................85
圖4.33 以2000元為拆解廢汽車行政補貼之利潤最適化結果.......................86
圖4.34 不確定條件下拆解利潤較低之零組件所需費用示意圖.....................87

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