臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

航空業常常實行收益管理來增加利潤，透過收益管理的手法對於有限的容量進行艙位配置，為了追求最大利潤，航空公司必須必須進行評估與收益比較，希望藉由高低費率之艙位配置數量間的調整，求取最大的期望收益。本研究參考過去航空收益管理的研究方法與成果，提出動態機率模式與以案例式推理為工具之解決艙位規劃問題的方法，根據每一決策時段艙位訂購需求的到達率，決定各決策時段、各費率等級應售出之艙位數，來進行艙位規劃與制訂最適之售票時間。其結果顯示，航空公司應用案例式推理模式來銷售艙位，可以得到較大的收益。

Airline industry usually implements yield management to rise profit. In order to attain the maximal profit, airline companies should sophisticatedly allocate the seats under different fares. In this research, a dynamic probability approach and a decision support system based on case-based reasoning are proposed. These proposed approaches can accept or deny a request according to the current conditions of seat inventory including arrival rates of customers, decision periods, and the fare classes requested by customers. The performance of each approach used in this research, i.e. first-come first-served, dynamic probability approach, and decision support system based on case-based reasoning has been tested. The numerical result indicates that the decision support system based on case-based reasoning outperforms the other approaches.

目錄
目錄 i
圖目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究動機 2
1.3研究目的 2
1.4研究方法 3
1.5研究流程 4
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 收益管理概論 6
2.1.1 收益管理之定義 6
2.1.2 收益管理之特性 7
2.2航空收益管理 9
2.2.1 需求預測 10
2.2.2票價規劃 11
2.2.3 超額訂位控制 11
2.3艙位規劃 12
2.3.1艙位規劃之涵意 12
2.3.2艙位規劃配置方式 14
2.2.3單一航程艙位規劃之相關文獻 15
2.4案例式推理決策支援系統 23
2.5 小結 24
第三章 問題定義 25
3.1問題描述 25
3.1.1艙位差別定價之意義 25
3.1.2艙位規劃之重要性 26
3.1.3 艙位規劃之模式 27
3.1.4 個案公司艙位規劃之現況說明 28
3.2研究範圍與限制 28
3.3小結 29
第四章 研究方法 31
4.1 研究架構 31
4.2決策支援系統 32
4.2.1決策支援系統概述 32
4.2.2 決策支援系統之意義與特性 32
4.2.3 決策支援系統的基本結構 34
4.3 案例式推理法 35
4.4 艙位規劃之決策系統 38
4.4.1動態機率模式之建構…. 38
4.4.2案例式推理模式之建構 40
4.5 實例說明..………………………………………………………… 43
4.5.1 範例內容 ……………………………………………………..43
4.5.1 範例演算說明 ………………………………………………..44
第五章 實驗分析 …………………………………………………………..46
5.1 顧客需求資料描述 ………………………………………….…...46
5.2 案例資料分析……………………………………………………..48
5.3 結果比較 …………………………………………………………49
5.4 小結 ………………………………………………………………60
第六章 結論………………………………………………………………….61
6.1 研究結論與貢獻 …………………………………………………..61
6.2 後續研究與建議……………………………………………………61
參考文獻 .63
圖目錄
圖1.1 研究流程圖 5
圖2.1 航空公司營收管理架構圖 10
圖2.2 單一航程示意圖 13
圖2.3 網路型航程示意圖 13
圖2.4 起飛地到目的地航程（ODF）控制示意圖 13
圖2.5 非巢式、巢式艙位配置之差異 15
圖2.6決策樹艙位規劃法 19
圖3.1 採取差別取價所造成航線營收大於成本示意圖 26
圖4.1 研究方法架構圖 31
圖4.2 決策活動的過程圖 33
圖4.3 決策支援系統的基本結構 35
圖 4.4 案例式推理之機制 36
圖 4.5 案例式推理之循環 37
圖 4.2 本研究之艙位規劃系統 ……………...………………………………….38
圖4.7 本研究動態機率模式建構概念圖 39
圖4.8 本研究動態機率模式之決策單位圖 39
圖4.9 本研究訂位過程之時段切割 40
圖 4.10 本研究案例式推理模式運作流程 ………………………………..41
圖5.1 資料輸入系統執行畫面 ……………………………………………48
圖5.2 系統起始設定畫面 …………………………………………………49
圖5.3 模擬結果顯示畫面 ………………………………………………....50
圖5.4 Lee與Hersh的資料收益圖 ………………………………………..52
圖5.5 Lee與Hersh的資料收益增長圖 …………………………………..53
圖5.6 第一種型態旅客訂位抵達率的10次模擬結果 ………………..…55
圖5.7 第一種型態旅客訂位抵達率的收益增長圖 ……..……………..…55
圖5.8 第二種型態旅客訂位抵達率的10次模擬結果 …………………..56
圖5.9 第二種型態旅客訂位抵達率的收益增長圖 ……………..……..…56
圖5.10 第三種型態旅客訂位抵達率的10次模擬結果 ………………....57
圖5.11 第三種型態旅客訂位抵達率的收益增長圖 …………………..…57
圖5.12 第四種型態旅客訂位抵達率的10次模擬結果 ………………....58
圖5.13 第四種型態旅客訂位抵達率的收益增長圖 …………………..…58
表目錄
表3-1 實施訂位控制策略之成效 27
表4-1 決策支援系統與傳統的電子資料比較表 32
表4-2 Simon的三階段決策過程模式 34
表4.3 實例說明(一) ……………………………………….……………...44
表4.4 實例說明(二) .……………………………………….………….…..44
表5.1 Lee與Hersh之旅客需求機率 ……………………………………..46
表5.2 訂位需求隨距離航班起飛時間之接近而逐漸增加 ………………47
表5.3訂位需求隨距離航班起飛時間之接近而逐漸減少 ………………47
表5.4訂位需求隨距離航班起飛時間之接近而先增加，而後逐步減少..47
表5.5訂位需求隨距離航班起飛時間之接近先減少，再逐步增加……..47
表5.6 案例資料欄位因子 ………………………………………………...49
表5.7 Lee與Hersh的資料實驗結果 …………………………………….51
表5.8 Lee與Hersh的資料收益增長表 ………...………………………..54
表5.9四種不同型態旅客訂位抵達率的平均收益模擬結果表 …...…. ...54
表5.10考慮與不考慮後面訂位時段的顧客需求的比較表 …..…….…...59

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