臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

出版業內部管理常依靠老員工過去經驗來作圖書管理，較不客觀且不具效率，本研究導入案例式推理及基因演算法，目的在以人工智慧的方法，模仿人類的經驗法則，利用案例的特徵值搜尋最相似案例作為新案例的預測值，以解決複雜且非結構的問題。過去，傳統案例式推理在歐幾里德公式假設權重都是一樣，也就是每個變數影響力相同，與現實狀況不符，因此藉由基因演算法來調整各變數的權重，期能提高預測能力。本研究以圖書經銷公司為研究對象，並建立其他三個模型倒傳遞類神經網路、傳統案例式推理、迴歸分析作為比較對象，實驗結果得知由於案例式推理及基因演算法，一方面擁有案例比對的能力，另一方面藉有調整權重的能力，相較於其他三種模型，能精確地判斷圖書滯銷與否。

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
致謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 IX
第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍及假設 3
1.4 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討
2.1 台灣圖書業相關研究文獻...................7
2.2 供應鏈存貨管理 ...........................8
2.3 案例式推導...............................12
2.4基因演算法之介紹..........................22
2.5 結合案例式推理和基因演算法之相關文獻.....32
2.6結語......................................33
第三章 問題描述
3.1 台灣圖書業現況...........................36
3.2 圖書商品種類.............................36
3.3 圖書供應鏈發展狀況.......................38
3.4 經銷商面臨的問題.........................40
3.5 經銷商之成本.............................44
3.6 J公司之現況說明..........................46
3.7研究範圍與限制............................47
3.8結語......................................47
第四章 研究方法
4.1 資料整理.................................49
4.2 逐步迴歸篩選變數.........................54
4.3 案例式推論的流程建立.....................55
4.4 結合基因演算法的輔助設計.................57
4.5 運用k最鄰近法擷取案例....................61
4.6 範例演算說明.............................61
4.7 類神經網路...............................62
第五章 參數設定與實驗分析
5.1 資料分類.................................68
5.2 變數篩選.................................69
5.3 各模型之參數設計與實驗分析...............69
5.4 模型綜合比較.............................90
第六章 結論
6.1 結論與未來展望...........................93
6.2 後續研究與建議 ...........................94
參考文獻.....................................96

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