臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主旨為探討公司管理當局之盈餘預測品質聲譽、盈餘預測修正與盈餘管理間之關係。動機為強制財務預測公開制度是否可能增加盈餘管理動機，其次為管理當局盈餘預測之品質聲譽對於其利用盈餘管理達成其盈餘預測目標之中介效果。以及探討本期盈餘管理決策對於未來盈餘預測誤差及盈餘預測修正決策之影響。最後則在探討財務預測修正決策之影響因素為何，及其與盈餘管理兩者間之關係。
本研究以Modified Jones Model估計裁決性應計項目金額，針對86年修正「公開發行公司財務預測資訊公開體系實施要點」後於86年至89年的樣本來探討其管理當局盈餘預測發佈與盈餘管理動機之關係。
實證結果如下：
1.在其他條件不變下，當操縱前盈餘為負以及當操縱前盈餘低於管理當局預測盈餘之20％以上時，經理人會利用裁決性應計項目之操縱以增加其列報盈餘。此外，當操縱前盈餘超過預測盈餘達20％以上時，經理人會利用裁決性應計項目以減少其列報盈餘。
2.各盈餘目標對盈餘管理影響之相對強度依次為操縱前盈餘為損失、操縱前盈餘高於管理當局預測盈餘達20％以上與操縱前盈餘低於預測盈餘達20％以上，後二者對於盈餘管理之影響強度則無顯著差異。
3.在其他條件不變下，當操縱前盈餘為負或操縱前盈餘低於預測盈餘20％時，若管理當局盈餘預測品質聲譽愈佳，則其利用裁決性應計項目以增加列報盈餘之幅度愈大。
4.在其他條件不變下，若本年度裁決性應計項目之金額愈高，則下一年度管理當局盈餘預測之不利誤差越大，顯示管理當局盈餘預測過度樂觀。若操縱前盈餘為損失或操縱前盈餘未達原始盈餘預測之20﹪時，經理人愈有可能修正其財務預測，且修正次數亦愈多。
5.當考量盈餘預測修正決策係盈餘管理決策之內生變數後，顯示此兩種工具存在替代關係。

There are four motivations of this thesis. First, to discuss whether forced financial information disclosure may give another motivation to manage earnings. Second, the intermediate effect between management earnings forecast reputation and the expect earnings. Third, the effectiveness of the earnings management decision this year to the forecast error and earnings forecast revision decision in the future. At last, the effect factors of financial forecast revision, and the relationship between it and earnings management.
After the revision of “Guideline Governing the Disclosure of Financial Forecast Information by Public Companies” promulgated in 1997, public offering and season equity offering should seriatim disclosure the financial forecast to three and two years. Focused on the firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and OTC over the period of 1997 to 2000, this thesis discusses the relationship between management earnings forecast and earnings management.
The empirical results documents that when the pre-management earnings is loss and pre-management earnings below (over) the financial forecast 80﹪(120﹪), managers will manage the earnings upward (down) by discretionary accruals. The pre-management earnings is loss has stronger relative effectiveness of earnings management thresholds to pre-management earnings below (over) the financial forecast 80﹪(120﹪).
When the pre-management earnings is loss and pre-management earnings below the financial forecast 80﹪and management earnings forecast reputation is better, managers will manage the earnings upward more by discretionary accruals. If the discretionary accruals this year is higher, the earnings forecast error next year is larger. It shows that managers forecast is too optimistic. If the pre-management earnings is loss and pre-management earnings below the financial forecast 80﹪, the more the loss are, the higher the probability and the frequency of earnings forecast revision. After controlling the autogenous variables, the earnings management decision and the earnings forecast revision decision have alternative relationship.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 我國強制性財務預測制度及沿革 1
第二節 研究目的與架構 7
第三節 論文架構 9
第二章 文獻探討 10
第一節 我國強制性財務預測制度及沿革 10
第二節 我國強制性財務預測制度及沿革 24
第三節 強制性財務預測與盈餘管理關聯性相關文獻 37
第三章 研究方法 41
第一節 研究假說 41
第二節 檢定方法與實證模式 47
第三節 樣本選取 65
第四章 實證結果 67
第一節 假說一之實證結果 67
第二節 假說二之實證結果 82
第三節 假說三之實證結果 89
第四節 敏感度測試 98
第五章 研究結論、限制與建議 101
第一節 研究結論 101
第二節 研究限制 103
第三節 研究建議 104
參考文獻 106
圖目錄
圖1：研究架構 8
圖2：盈餘管理文獻探討之架構 24
圖3：盈餘管理決策門檻示意圖 51
圖4：財務預測誤差各區間之估計裁決性應計項目示意圖 59
圖5：各分割樣本裁決性應計金額之次數分配圖 73
圖6：LOSS組 操縱前損失之裁決性應計項分配表 74
圖7：財務預測誤差與裁決性應計項目之關係 74
圖8：過去財務預測品質與本期裁決性應計金額之關係 84
圖9：下一年度實際財務預測誤差與裁決性應計項目分布圖 90
表目錄
表1：我國財務預測制度之沿革 11
表2：盈餘管理目標之分割變數 50
表3：【模式1】變數一覽表 57
表4：財務預測誤差各區間之預期裁決性應計金額 58
表5：【模式2】中過去三年度的平均實際財務預測誤差定義 60
表6：【模式3】變數定義 62
表7：【模式4】變數表 62
表8：【模式5】變數表 63
表9：【模式6】變數表 64
表10：各產業及年度之樣本數表 66
表11：模式1之敘述統計量 67
表12：Modified Jones Model各產業估計非裁決應計項金額之係數 68
表13：期初總資產平減之操縱前盈餘樣本分布表 69
表14：修正次數分布與財務預測誤差敘述統計量 70
表15：各組分割樣本裁決性應計項金額之敘述統計量與t檢定結果 71
表16：各組裁決性應計項目與財務預測誤差相關係數表 75
表17：假說一【模式1】結果 76
表18：模式1-B各分割樣本之平均裁決性應計金額表 79
表19：過去財務預測品質與裁決性應計金額之關係 83
表20：假說二模式2之實證結果 85
表21：下一年度之實際財務預測和是否修正的DAC分布 89
表22：假說三模式3結果 91
表23：假說三模式4結果 92
表24：假說三模式5結果 94
表25：假說三模式6結果 96
表26：盈餘預測修正與盈餘管理決策之關係檢定結果 98

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