由於資訊科技的進步帶動經濟全球化，因此供應鏈管理面臨更為複雜的競爭環境，也增加整體市場需求的不確定性。也因競爭環境的激烈，為在最短時間內回應顧客需求，會將一些前置時間往前縮短，相對產品的生命週期也因市場不斷的推陳出新而縮短，往往會造成供應鏈管理中最另人困擾的「長鞭效應」。
本研究以迴歸分析來探討長鞭效應的四個構面成因(需求預測、訂購批量、價格波動與前置時間)及夥伴關係三個構面成因(信任、承諾、彈性)等研究變數。由於供應鏈中的夥伴關係是相互依存的合作關係，當改變長鞭效應之成因，對夥伴關係的影響是正相關及強化夥伴關係是可降低長鞭效應的影響，冀以透過此研究了解如何強化整體供應鏈管理，以上採問卷調查的方式，以台灣資訊電子產業為研究對象進行討論。
經研究後發現改變長鞭效應的成因(需求預測、訂購批量、價格波動與前置時間)，對夥伴關係的影響具有顯著影響，而在加強供應鏈中夥伴關係之彈性最可減少長鞭效應所帶來的衝擊。本研究結果可提供企業界作為建立良好的夥伴關係，除了可創造企業的競爭優勢外，亦可降低長鞭效應所帶來之無形的傷害。

The advance technology brings up the economical globalization. Therefore, the supply chain management faces the competitive marketing more complicated, which rise up the uncertain factors in all environment. As the reasons, to react the customer’s needs in the short time will shrink the products lead time so that the life cycle of products will absolutely cut down cause it has the new design produced now and then. That could make the most torment problems “Bullwhip Effect” in SCM.

The research is based on regression analysis to explore the four factors in bullwhip effect which have forecasting need、ordering volume、fluctuating price、lead time, and three factors in partnership which have trust、promise and elasticity variables. Regarding all of factors in partnership depend on each other and also in cooperation. Changing the factors of bullwhip effect is active on partnership and strengthen partnership can diminish the bullwhip effect. To hope via the research can know how to consolidate supply chain management issues. The study samples are sales background in electronics industry and by questionnaire.

The research found out when change the bullwhip effect factors such as forecasting need、ordering volume、fluctuating price、lead time issues that are remarkable effect on that, and improving the partnership’s elasticity in SCM will be outstanding in reducing bullwhip effect to cause the damage. The research can offer the good partnership of importance in the field, not only create the longer competitive advantages, but also can know other ways to reduce the loss in the bullwhip effect.

書名頁 ...............................................................i
中文摘要..............................................................iii
英文摘要..............................................................iv
目錄 ..............................................................vi
表目錄 ..............................................................viii
圖目錄 .............................................................ix

第一章 緒論...........................................................1
第一節 研究背景與動機...........................................1
第二節 研究目的.................................................2
第三節 研究架構與流程...........................................3

第二章 文獻探討.......................................................5
第一節 長鞭效應.................................................5
第二節 供應鏈管理...............................................13
第三節 夥伴關係.................................................20

第三章 研究方法.......................................................26
第一節 研究架構.................................................26
第二節 研判假設...............................................27
第三節 變數的定義與衡量.........................................31
第四節 問卷設計...............................................36
第五節 資料分析方法.............................................38

第四章 研究分析與結果.................................................39
第一節 敘述性統計...............................................39
第二節 信度分析...............................................41
第三節 效度分析...............................................43
第四節 皮爾森相關分析...........................................47
第五節 變異數分析.............................................48
第六節 假說驗證.............................................49
第七節 小結.............................................54

第五章 結論與建議.................................................55
第一節 研究結論...............................................55
第二節 研究建議...............................................59
第三節 研究限制...............................................60

參考文獻...............................................................61
一、中文部份......................................................61
二、英文部份......................................................62

附錄一：問卷內容.........................................................67

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